J.P.Morgan hæfter sig ved, at high-tech selskaberne er drønet langt foran S&P500 selskaberne, hvad cash flow angår. Det er årsagen til, at aktierne har klaret sig så godt i år, selv om de er blevet ekstremt dyre. Margenen i det frie cash flow er steget fra 5 pct. efter high-tech boblen i midten af 90’erne til 23 pct. i dag – mod 13 pct. for S&P500. Men J.P.Morgan anbefaler dog investorerne at brede deres portefølje ud, så de ikke kun omfatter teknologiaktier, men også cykliske aktier og internationale aktier.
Thought of the week
The roller coaster ride in equity markets over the past couple of months has been driven in large part by a handful of technology stocks.
While this dynamic has pushed U.S. markets to all-time highs and valuations to extreme levels, we do not see the same fundamental challenges today as
were present prior to the tech bubble.
Despite the pandemic, technology earnings rose 0.5% y/y in 2Q20 while overall S&P 500 earnings contracted by roughly 27% on a pro-forma basis. In contrast, in 2000 the sector contributed roughly 16% to earnings, yet earnings contracted severely through the first half of 2001 before turning
negative by the third quarter.
In addition, and as highlighted, free cash flow margins reveal the sector’s far better operating performance relative to the broader
market.
By expanding into software and away from hardware, technology sales
growth has accelerated, leading to cash-rich balance sheets. Free cash flow
margins have expanded from less than 5% in the aftermath of the tech bubble to over 23% today.
Looking ahead, the outlook for technology earnings remains positive and
momentum could continue to push the market higher in the short term.
With that being said, however, a more broad-based market recovery across other sectors will be needed to sustain the rally over the medium to long term, suggesting investors will need to complement tech exposure with cyclical value and international equities.
