De europæiske aktier ventes at stige i dag efter en periode med stigninger og efter rekord-niveauer i USA. Men det sker på baggrund af en ringe handel – midt i sommerferien. Analytikere tror ikke, de høje niveauer holder, når markedsomsætningen vender tilbage i efteråret. Tyske banker venter en stigende euro over for dollaren i takt med, at inflationstrykket i USA ventes at falde.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
More Modest Gains Likely for Stocks as Wall Street Hits New High
Stocks’ mostly steady climb in Europe is likely to continue on Friday, following fresh records on Wall Street. In Asia, however, shares were mainly weaker as fears over the Delta variant of the coronavirus continued to dent sentiment. Elsewhere, the dollar, Treasury yields and oil dipped, while gold and base metals were a touch firmer.
Equities:
European stocks are likely to inch higher on Friday and cling to a winning streak that is on its tenth day.
On Wall Street, the Dow and S&P 500 climbed to fresh records on Thursday but Asian shares have mostly retreated on continued worries over China’s regulatory clampdown and ongoing Covid-19 risks.
Melissa Brown, managing director of applied research at Qontigo, said it is important to note that market rallies during low trading volumes of the summer months can be hard to maintain come fall when volumes increase.
“I’m skeptical about whether that is a sustainable rally; it’s not quite as certain when stocks are going up on low trading volumes,” Ms. Brown said.
Forex:
The dollar eased down slightly against a basket of currencies, with more U.S. economic data in focus. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey will be watched for its indicator of long-run inflation expectations, which have increased materially in recent months and could lead to higher wage and price inflation, said CBA.
Deutsche Bank said EUR/USD is on track for the narrowest range in 30 years, at 6 cents, which is well short of the average 19 cents. “The narrow range means making new lows [or highs] would be far from surprising, while history also suggests a large extension of the range later in the year is unlikely,” said Deutsche Bank, adding that it “can’t see a catalyst that will meaningfully extend the range this year.”
Meantime, Commerzbank said the euro should recover against the dollar later this year as U.S. inflation eases considerably, prompting the market to push back expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first post-pandemic interest rate rise.
Inflationary pressures are likely to ease very significantly as early as the fourth quarter of 2021 and inflation will fall markedly in the first half of 2022, said Commerzbank currency analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann.
