Formue

“Hvad nu hvis?” – markedsudviklingen begynder at ligne 2008-krakket

Uddrag fra finanshuse, Market Ear, Refinitiv, Goldman og CNN

…that left tail starts reviving for real Updated chart of the 2008 analogy.

Refinitiv

SPX is crashing down to the big 4100 level. Today’s candle so far is huge and very important. Consensus for a non even JH was huge, so this comes as a surprise for a lot of people. A close below 4100 and this market could accelerate to the downside (asymmetry etc, more here). First support should we close below 4100 is the 4k area, and then the 3900 level.

Refinitiv

VIX – panicky

Haven’t seen the VIX behave like this in a while. Hopefully you loaded up on protection when you could…and not when you must.

Refinitiv

VIX seasonality

Gentle reminder of VIX seasonality over the past 20 years.

Equity Clock

Don’t forget short gamma grows to the downside

QQQ already in deep short gamma, while SPX is flipping into short gamma land here. Erratic market is back where dealers will puke lows and chase highs…For now selling will be met with more selling.

Tier1Alpha

The FOMO MOMO – back to where it started

The fast (and most sensitive) money was eager to deploy risk into the MEME stuff during the latest squeeze. Note that the MEME ETF is back to where it started….while NASDAQ remains elevated.

Refinitiv

and it’s back

Say hello to fear again…

CNN

GS: risks to both the near-term pace and terminal rate tilted to the upside

“We continue to expect the FOMC to slow the pace from here, delivering a 50bp hike in September and 25bp hikes in November and December, for a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5%. Additional CPI and employment reports will be available by the September meeting, however, and Powell said that another 75bp hike “could be appropriate.” We see the risks to both the near-term pace and our terminal rate forecast as tilted to the upside” (Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs)

GS: “Latest TTF rally has overshot fundamentals”

“European gas prices have in our view overshot fundamentals fueled by a combination of supply (NS1, LNG) and demand (heat wave, nuclear outages) concerns and exceptionally poor liquidity in the market, illustrated by erratic and sparse intra-day price moves. Even assuming higher forward gas generation demand vs previously owing to more pessimistic nuclear generation and delayed coal restart assumptions, we estimate NW European storage can end summer at 90% full even if 3Q22 TTF prices return to our expected 170-190 EUR/MWh range. In addition, should the upcoming three-day NS1 outage become permanent (not our base case), requiring higher demand destruction, we estimate the region can manage storage levels with 3Q22 TTF at 215-230 EUR/MWh, well below current price levels”

Goldman

Ending the week on a high note

German and French 1 year baseload electricity…the definition of parabolic.

Refinitiv

Bullish or bearish

In trading you produce one thing only; p/l. Most people spend time on trying to figure out the market, and have zero clue of how they manage their risk. A lot of people have seen a lot of p/l pain this year already, but it is never too late to start with the first lesson of managing your p/l; keeping drawdowns small.

TME

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