Nordea har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af BankNordik:
BankNordik has announced 2023 net profit guidance of DKK 190-220m, alongside a revision of its 2024 targets. The bank now expects net profit of DKK 160-170m for 2022 – we estimate DKK 169m. We pencil in the effects of two additional hikes expected in Q1 2023, totalling 80 bp for BankNordik, which prompts us to raise 2023E-24E adjusted EPS by 2-9%. We also expect ~60% of BankNordik’s market cap will be paid out to shareholders by 2024 in order for the bank to reach its 2024 capitalisation target. We lift our Gordon growth-based fair value range to DKK 259-289 (243-270).
Announcement of 2023 guidance and revision of 2024 targets
On 26 January, BankNordik published its guidance for 2023 and narrowed its 2022 guidance. Aside from this, it made positive revisions to its 2024 targets. It lifted its ROE target to 12% (10%), lowered the cost/income ratio to less than 53% (less than 55% previously) and raised the ordinary dividend payout ratio from 50% of net profit up to 70%. Its CET1 target ratio of 20% remains unchanged. In addition to the 70% payout ratio, special payouts are needed for the bank to reach its CET1 target, hence we estimate a total 2024 dividend yield of ~16.3%
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