ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af BankNordik:
- Lower costs to drive Q4’21 PBLL well up y-o-y
- DKK 13 ordinary EPS for ‘21e, DKK 26 EO DPS H1’22e
- Trading at a ’23 P/E of 7.5x and 5.5x adjusted for DPS
Q4e costs down 6% y-o-y from more net loan loss reversals
We expect BankNordik to report Q4’21 profit before loan losses (PBLL) of DKK 43m, which is 13% up y-o-y, mostly due to lower costs (DKK 59m Q4’21e compared to DKK 63m Q4’20). We expect NII up 1.5% q-o-q, helped by deposit re-pricing and lending growth in Greenland. Commissions could be DKK 3m up y-o-y, to DKK 19m, following good activity and price changes rolling into Q4’21. We believe insurance income could be a moderate DKK 9m, which is down from DKK 12m in Q4’20. We expect net loan loss reversals of DKK 22m in Q4’21, mostly related to the Danish legacy real estate exposure. We expect Q4’21 CET1 down 290bp q-o-q, to 23.2%, driven by BankNordik deducting the flagged EO dividend for 2022 of DKK 250m (DKK 26 per share) with a CET1 drag of 350bp. We expect BankNordik to announce an ordinary DPS for 2021 of DKK 13 (pay-out of 50%, yield of 8.7%), as the DKK 46.8 EO DPS has already been paid.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
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