Ikke-uafhængig analyse: BankNordik – This NII train goes to Dividend City

ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af BankNordik:

• Strong end to the year from NII and market value adjustments
• Another jumbo dividend yield of 15% for ’22e. ~9% for ’23e-’24e
• Still below peers at ’24e adj. P/E of 7.6x despite +30% YTD perf.

All eyes on the size of dividends and NII

The main topic of interest in the Q4 report on 24 February will be the size of the dividend where we expect another jumbo dividend of DKK 26.2 per share in BankNordik’s pursuit of its CET1 ratio target of 20% by 2024. This implies a dividend yield of 15%. For Q4 we expect a strong NII development similar to what we have observed in reports from Danish peers, and we estimate NII at DKK 79m, corresponding to 18% growth q-o-q. The main change from Q3 is expected to stem from market value adjustments rebounding to positive territory. We expect FY’22 net profit at DKK 169m, in the high end of the narrowed guidance range of DKK 160m-170m.

2023e adjusted EPS raised 5%

Ahead of Q4 we make slight revisions to our estimates. We lift our NII estimates by ~4% for ’23e-’24e and also 3% for Q4. This is partly offset by 5% lower commission income estimates while our cost estimates for ’23-’24 are raised 3% to reflect the growth in salaries and IT costs in the coming years. We also adjust our DPS forecasts to reflect the increased payout target of 50-70% of net profits. In total our estimate revisions equal a 5% lift to our 2023e adj. EPS.

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