Danske Bank har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Carlsberg:
Carlsberg reported solid 2022 results in respect of the many challenges facing the group throughout the year. That said, 2023 seems fraught with uncertainty and Carlsberg presented a fairly broad guidance range of -5% to +5% organic growth on EBIT. Given the recent news flow, uncertainty in the timing of the Russian divestment seems to have increased, which warrants a small discount to key peers. This is also what we currently observe in the market. In that light, we change our recommendation on Carlsberg from Overweight to Marketweight.
Carlsberg released its H2 22 and year-end 2022 report this morning. Headline numbers were slightly soft (relative to Bloomberg consensus) with adj. EBIT at DKK5bn vs. DKK5.273 (5% miss) and net sales at DKK35bn vs. DKK35.1bn (in line). However, on a y/y comparison the performance was strong with 15.6% organic revenue growth driven by higher volumes in Europe (+5.4%) and Asia (+10.3%) and Central and Eastern Europe ex. Ukraine (+4.9%).
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