Danske Bank har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af DSV:
DSV reported a strong Q3 22 with EBITDA of DKK7.5bn – up from DKK5.5bn in Q3 21 – driven by overall favourable market conditions and the consolidation of GIL. Net debt to EBITDA declined to just 0.9x – clearly below the ‘below 2.0x’ target – and therefore DSV has initiated two share buy-back programmes of DKK7bn in total. This lifts leverage to around 1.1x pro-forma as of Q3 22. DSV raises the guidance for 2022 slightly but also expects that global logistics markets will continue to be negatively impacted by the slowdown in the global economy. The expected lower macro-economic growth will impact DSV’s performance in 2023 but due to the flexible business model, low maintenance capex requirement and strong free cash flow generation we believe that DSV will be able to safeguard the ‘A-’ rating even in a relatively harsh macro-economic scenario. We note that DSV bonds are trading at ‘BBB+’ levels – in our view mainly due to some ‘risk’ of DSV looking for more M&A. We would highlight that DSV has a long and strong track-record regarding M&A. Overall we continue to see value in DSV bonds and maintain our Overweight recommendation.
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