Danske Bank har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af GomSpace:
2021 revenue was slightly below the guided range and GomSpace is guiding for midpoint 2022 growth of 30% and negative EBIT, both of which are below our estimates. The latter is due to a slower hiring pace and more engineering hours in the mix. On the flip side, the order book is a record high. We lower our valuation to SEK12-27 from SEK16-29.
- Q4 21 review. SEK81m revenue was +12% y/y but -10% versus our estimate and 2021 revenue was slightly below the guided range (it has been harder than the company expected to ramp up recruitment to meet demand). However, a better gross margin than expected compensated for higher opex, so Q4 EBIT was slightly better than we had expected. Thanks
to the EUR24m ESA order announced in Dec-21, order intake was strong at SEK287m and the backlog was SEK540m (+55% y/y). For 2022, GomSpace is guiding for revenue of SEK264-292m (our previous estimate was SEK301m), which implies mid-point growth of 30% in 2022E. We now estimate 2022 sales of SEK278m, slightly above the mid-point.
GomSpace is guiding for a 2022E EBIT margin “better than -15%” (2021: -14%), while we had estimated +4%. We now estimate -13%. The lower-than-expected profit guidance is dueto more non-recurring engineering projects (more hours, lower margin) in the mix. The 2022 guidance implies that SEK248-276m of the current order backlog would remain for delivery beyond 2022E. We note that hiring issues and component sourcing issues are not unique to GomSpace and expect the situation to improve in 2022. Operating cash flow was positive and Q4 ended with a SEK99m cash position. We estimate this should be enough to carry the guided negative EBIT for 2022, but we also note that GomSpace says it is “… considering various financing opportunities in the short and mid-term perspective to achieve our strategic goals”, which might indicate a potential capital raise either through debt or equity.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
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