Nordea har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Netcompany:
The annual report was a repeat of several previous interim reports – impressive performance but overly ambitious guidance, forcing Netcompany to adjust its expectations. This time, the company trimmed its 2021 EBITA margin guidance. The margin was strong in Q4 2020, however, hence we wonder if the change mainly reflects cautiousness. Q4 showed generally strong performance and solid cash flow, but the UK business continued to decline as expected (Q4 revenue: -10% q/q). We make minor
changes to 2021E-22E but leave our DCF- and peer group-based fair value range unchanged at DKK 525-615.
Q4 2020: Solid performance
Q4 EBITA exceeded company-compiled consensus by 11%, despite a 3% revenue miss. Revenue growth of 22% in Norway and 90% in Holland (Holland Q4 EBITA margin: 28%) was impressive, and these two divisions seem to be on track. CFFO rose by 70%, up to DKK 213m (2020: DKK 581m).
2021 guidance: Downgraded but still impressive
In its Q3 2020 report, Netcompany announced its 2021 expectations,
cutting its EBITA margin target from ~25% down to ~23-25% but reiterating its 15-20% LCY revenue growth guidance. In addition to uncertainty about the impact of COVID-19, Netcompany mentioned cost headwinds from its LT incentive programme (DKK 25m y/y), as well as an assumption that its costs for travel, education etc will return to pre-COVID
levels (DKK ~50m). These two items should not have been a surprise for Netcompany, but the latter did not seem to be fully reflected in its
guidance from last November. During the Q4 investor call, the CEO said that order intake in Norway and the UK was not based on discounts.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
