ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Össur:
- Q4 sales in line; EBITDA hurt by one-off
- Solid FY’21 guidance with room for uncertainties
- Fair value range increased to DKK 35-68 (35-67)
Q4’20 sales around index 90-100%, with prosthetics at +100%
Össur reported Q4’20 sales of USD 170m, in line with consensus at USD 172m, correlating to a -4% organic decline (company-collected cons. at -6%) for the quarter. The B&S segment declined 12% organic sales (largely driven by the lack of injuries and elective surgeries during the pandemic) while organic sales in the higher-margin prosthetic segment grew by 1% (due to the underlying mechanical sub segment, while the bionic sub segment was hurt by the pandemic, due to the more demanding fitting process). Overall, the changed product mix contributed positively to a higher gross margin of 64% (up from 63% in Q4’19). In contrast, the EBITDA margin was negatively impacted by cost related to divestment of B&S operations in the US (USD -10.7m) and was therefore reported at 14% (adj. 19%).
FY’21 organic growth guidance of 10-15% (cons 13.9%)
The FY’21 guidance looks solid with organic revenue growth of 10-15% (ABGSCe 13.6% and cons. 13.9%) and EBITDA margin of 21-23% (ABGSCe 22.5% and cons. 23%). The guidance account for continued negative COVID-19 impact in H1 (gradually subsiding in Q2) and H2 is expected to be largely unaffected. The higher end of the range assumes some pent-up demand, especially from patients that were made eligible for bionic prosthetics in 2020, but did not get them yet, due to the prolonged fitting times required.
Three acquisitions totalling USD 38m revenues completed
Össur announced the completion of three acquisition during Q4 (predominantly O&P clinics in France), with combined USD 38m annual revenue; this is reflected in our estimate changes. Overall, we see this as an indication of the company’s ability to continue to deliver stable organic and external growth. Furthermore, with the long-term fundamental continuously looking stable, we raise out fair value range slightly to DKK 35-68 (35-67).
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
