Nordea har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Netcompany:
The implicit guidance for H2 2020 was demanding, as we highlighted in
our preview, and left no room for disappointments. Because the new
restrictions imposed in the UK have hit this market hard, including
postponements/cancellations of its backlog, the company downgraded its
2020 guidance to reflect the revenue lost in the UK during Q2-Q4.
Following the Q3 performance and Q4 outlook, we cut 2020E-22E EBITA by
~5%, and our updated combined DCF- and peer group-based valuation
suggests a range of DKK 525-615 per share (down from DKK 550-645).
Denmark: 24% revenue growth and 35% EBITA margin
The Danish division continued its strong performance, which exceeded the
internal budget. The 49% gross margin and 35% EBITA margin were
particularly impressive, including 43% within the private sector.
The UK will take time and will be a drag for the quarters ahead
The -17% y/y revenue growth clearly illustrates the issues within the UK
division. Renewed lockdowns in the UK have made matters worse, forcing
cancellations and postponements for part of the company’s backlog. Q2-
Q4 revenue is DKK ~20m lower than Q1, equal to ~2pp lower revenue
growth on the group level. To maintain its medium-term potential,
Netcompany has rightly decided to not launch a redundancy programme,
which would dilute profitability margins due to too-low capacity utilisation
(Q3 2020 EBITA margin: -5.9%; Q3 2019: 14.5%)
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
