ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Össur:
- Feedback from Hanger inc. Q4’20 conf. call
- Three key drivers, for pent-up O&P demand in the US
- Positive read across
Q4’20 prosthetics sales down 12.3% (vs. Össur at +1%)
Hanger Inc., the largest O&P clinic operator in the US, today reported their Q4’20 results and hosted a conference call. The results for the quarter showed prosthetic sales being down 12.3% (Össur +1%). The sales decrease was due to the ongoing COVID headwind. However, while COVID case numbers had increased during the quarter in the US, their sales recovery had continued. They even returned to a full-time schedule, bringing back furloughed employees and reestablishing pre-COVID wages in October.
Stronger resilience in high-mobility (high-tech) patients
Hanger’s outlook on H1’21 is similar to Össur’s, expecting a continued negative impacted by COVID. However, for H2’21, where Össur has more conservative as to whether or not there will be a pent-up in demand (implied in their wide FY’21 guidance range: organic growth of 10-15%, ABGSCe 13.6%, cons. 13.9%, with the higher-end accounting for some pent-up demand), Hanger, has a favorable view on pent-up O&P demand in the US. They see the pent-up demand being driven by 1) a large cohort of vulnerable, low-mobility patients having elected to stay home during the pandemic, when they get vaccinated, there will be some pent-up demand in fittings etc. (existing customers is ~75% of Össur’s revenues), 2) People who had underlying health conditions, such as foot ulcers going into the pandemic, may not have been able to receive proper care as needed at home, which could lead to more amputations when the hospitals systems stabilizes (new customers is ~25% of Össur’s revenues) and 3) Many mid to high active amputees, have been homebound for ~1 year, many of whom will likely wish to be as active as possible, fueling demand for more high-tech prosthetics.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
