ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Vestjysk Bank:
- Q3 PBLL 10% ahead of ABGSCe, but NII disappointed
- Underlying Q3 costs significantly down y-o-y
- Fair value range down to DKK 2.8-5.6 (2.9-5.8)
Underlying Q3 costs down 19% y-o-y, NII hurt by mix effect
Vestjysk Bank reported Q3’21 Profit Before Loan Losses (PBLL) of DKK 151m, which was 10% above ABGSCe. NII was 5% below ABGSCe and 3% down q-o-q, despite lending growth of 1.4% q-o-q. It seems a negative mix effect was a key factor behind the sequential NII drop as a single lower credit quality high-margin loan was replaced by lower margin loans in Q3 (implying high underlying growth). We also see a temporary drag on NII from liquidity placement costs. Commissions were 6% below ABGSCe, with lower trading related fee income a key driver, while trading was 28% above ABGSCe. Q3 costs being 11% below ABGSCe was a positive surprise and the main driver for the PBLL beat. It seems synergies from the takeover of DJS at the start of the year have started to roll into the numbers, while DKK 32m in EO costs in Q3’21 was lower than we expected. Adjusted for DJS and EO costs related to DJS, costs are down 19% y-o-y. Net loan loss reversals of DKK 18m were close to ABGSCe and were driven by the real estate sector and other business. CET1 of 17.8% was 60bp below ABGSCe due to VB not consolidating Q3’21 net profit (to be consolidated in Q4’21).
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
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