ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Vestjysk Bank:
- 2021 net profit guidance upgraded to DKK 900-1,000m
- Our FV range including M&A up to DKK 2.8-5.6 (2.7-5.5)
- VB is trading at a 2022e adj. P/E of 7.8x
Activity, credit quality and lower costs behind the upgrade
Today, Vestjysk Bank (VB) upgraded its guidance for 2021 net profit to DKK 900-1,000m (DKK 800-900m) while 2021 net profit excl. EO items for the DJS merger was upgraded to DKK 575-625m (DKK 500-550m). VB points to lower than expected loan loss charges (we now factor in a DKK 30m net reversal for Q2) and high fee income (we now estimate Q2’21 commissions of DKK 157m). Our interpretation of the net profit guidance going up more than the adj. guidance is that we can expect extraordinary costs of DKK 30m below the guided level of DKK 200m, of which DKK 116m was remaining for Q2’21-Q4’21 (now DKK 86m is left). We expect Q2’21 costs of DKK 233m, 24% down from Q1 due to less EO costs and synergies. We expect NII up 8% q-o-q due to 14 more days in Q2’21 including DJS, while lending could be a bit down due to the potential credit clean-up behind the lower than expected loan losses. We expect a Q2’21 CET1 of 18%, which is up 80bp sequentially.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
