IMF har offentliggjort den hidtil alvorligste analyse af coronakrisen. IMF venter den værste globale krise siden depressionen i begyndelsen af 30’erne. IMF venter en minusvækst på 3 pct. for hele verden i 2020, men med en stærk genopretning til 5,8 pct. i 2021.
Uddrag fra Danske Bank:
The IMF released a grim update to its World Economic Outlook. It now expects the coronavirus crisis to lead to the worst global economic contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s with a decline in global GDP by 3% in 2020.
The IMF expects the pandemic to fade in the second half of 2020, allowing for unwinding of containment efforts, paving the way for a rebound in global growth to 5.8% in 2021.
The economic setback is especially pronounced in advanced economies, which have been hit particularly hard by the coronavirus, leading to a downward revision of real GDP growth of 7.7 pp in 2020 compared with the January WEO update.
The IMF forecasts are significantly more bearish than our forecast, which may partly be explained by the assumption of an easing of lockdown and financial conditions not until the second half of 2020, whereas we expect this to begin gradually in Q2.
