Inflationen er på vej nedad i Kina efter en periode med høje priser for svinekød. Det kan føre til en svag strigning i det generelle forbrug.
Uddrag fra ING:
Inflation in China in November rose further to 4.5%YoY, but there are clear signs that it is peaking. Newswires running headlines like “China November inflation highest since 2012” entirely miss the point. Inflation in China has been driven higher by rising pork and consequently other meat prices. This is fallout from the African Swine Fever (AFS) epidemic that has killed half of the hog population in China.
In November, pork prices rose 3.8%MoM. But this was way down from the 20.1% increase in October, the 19.7%MoM increase in September, and the 23.1% increase in August. In fact, it was the lowest increase since June (3.6%MoM).
The peak of the AFS pandemic has passed. Pork prices may even start to decline next month, and in the coming months, dragging down other meat prices along the way. Inflation rates should now have peaked, and the coming months will see measured inflation drop steadily.
More than that, household spending will get a lift from the additional purchasing power following the decline in meat prices, which will provide a broader lift to the domestic economy at a difficult time for the economy.
