Handelsbanken tror, at inflationen i Norge er toppet med 3,4 pct. i oktober, og at den vil falde dramatisk i de kommende månder og komme under 2 pct. i 2021.
CPI-ATE may have passed the peak
• CPI-ATE at 3.4 percent in October, as we and consensus expected
• The peak may have passed
• CPI-ATE expected to trend sharply lower during the first half of 2021
CPI-ATE at 3.4 percent in October, as we and consensus expected
Core inflation, as measured by CPI-ATE, rose to 3.4 percent in October, following 3.3 percent in September and 3.7 percent in August; that was exactly as expected, as both we and consensus had anticipated a base effect lifting it to 3.4 percent in October.
• The peak may have passed
• CPI-ATE expected to trend sharply lower during the first half of 2021
CPI-ATE at 3.4 percent in October, as we and consensus expected
Core inflation, as measured by CPI-ATE, rose to 3.4 percent in October, following 3.3 percent in September and 3.7 percent in August; that was exactly as expected, as both we and consensus had anticipated a base effect lifting it to 3.4 percent in October.
The outcome appears to be marginally weaker than expected by Norges Bank, as the central bank had forecast CPI-ATE hovering around 3.5 percent during Q4. The deviation is negligible, however.
Through the monthly volatility, it appears as if CPI-ATE has passed the peak; as stressed previously, it was just a question of time before the inflationary impulse from initial NOK weakening would start to fade.
Without a substantial weakening of the NOK exchange rate, we see CPI-ATE trending sharply lower in the period ahead, especially during the first half of next year. Norges Bank has also taken this into account.
