Inflationen i Sverige steg i juli mere end forventet, med 0,5 pct. Ser man bort fra energipriserne, var inflationen på 1,5 pct. Handelsbanken venter, at inflationen fortsat vil være lav og ligge på mellem 1 og 1,5 pct. i de kommende år.
Inflation higher than expected in July
• Continued muted core inflation and lower energy prices in July
• But inflation was higher than expected
• Inflation well below the 2 percent target for the foreseeable future
Inflation higher than expected in July
CPIF inflation was 0.5 percent in July, above our forecast as well as consensus and the Riksbank’s forecast. CPIF inflation excluding energy was 1.5 percent in July, also higher than the Riksbank’s forecast and our forecast. Prices for car rentals were higher than we expected, as well as for clothing and shoes, whereas package holidays were a bit cheaper than we expected.
• But inflation was higher than expected
• Inflation well below the 2 percent target for the foreseeable future
Inflation higher than expected in July
CPIF inflation was 0.5 percent in July, above our forecast as well as consensus and the Riksbank’s forecast. CPIF inflation excluding energy was 1.5 percent in July, also higher than the Riksbank’s forecast and our forecast. Prices for car rentals were higher than we expected, as well as for clothing and shoes, whereas package holidays were a bit cheaper than we expected.
However, one needs to be aware of the significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation figures due to COVID-19 and individual outcomes have to be interpreted cautiously. For example, clothing and shoe prices have diverged from the normal seasonal pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic. Package holidays prices have been imputed since April, but with some international travel starting to take place in July, Statistics Sweden used actual prices in July. Hence, the inflation figures are more uncertain than usual.
Inflation well below the 2 percent target for the foreseeable future
Looking ahead, overall inflationary pressure is expected to be low. Energy prices will continue to weigh on the CPIF inflation y-o-y figure for most of this year. Furthermore, prices for services will probably be subdued in the coming years in response to low wage growth and weak demand.
In addition, according to the Economic Tendency Survey, price plans are low and the strengthening of the krona is starting to lower import prices. Weak global demand also contributes to muted inflation for globally traded consumer goods. Overall, we expect the underlying inflation figure (CPIF excluding energy) to be around 1.0 to 1.5 percent in the coming years, which is largely in line with the Riksbank’s new inflation forecast. Despite this, the Riksbank is expected to leave the repo rate unchanged.
July inflation
CPI July details:
