Resume af teksten:
Japan, Taiwan, og Indonesien forbereder sig på at annoncere beslutninger om renteændringer. I Japan forventes centralbanken at hæve renten med 25 basispoint den 19. december, da økonomien viser tegn på bedring, og inflationen presser opad. Stærk eksportvækst, især inden for biler og halvledere, samt stigende inflation omkring 3% vil sandsynligvis understøtte denne beslutning.
I Kina ventes en svag stigning i industriel produktion og detailsalg, mens investeringer i faste aktiver fortsætter med at falde. Der forventes ingen større økonomiske stimuli, og ejendomspriserne formodes at falde yderligere. Taiwan ser ud til at opretholde sine rentesatser uændret på 2.0%, idet der er enighed blandt økonomer om denne beslutning på grund af stabil vækst og valutabalance. Indonesien planlægger at skære renten med 25 basispoint for at stimulere væksten, da inflationspresset aftager lidt.
Fra ING:
Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia will announce interest rate decisions. Data highlights include China’s industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment and Japanese manufacturing, exports, and inflation
Japan: BoJ expected to raise rates amid manufacturing recovery and inflationary pressures
The Bank of Japan is expected to deliver a 25 bp hike on 19 December. Upcoming data should bolster the BoJ’s belief that the economy is on a recovery path. With the reduction in tariff uncertainties, we expect a more pronounced bounceback in manufacturing. This should be reflected in Tankan and purchasing managers data. Also, November exports are projected to grow robustly, with a 7% gain driven by cars and semiconductors. We expect inflation to stay around 3% in November amid growing pressures from services prices. This will keep the BoJ in rate hike mode.
China: IP and retail sales expected to rise slightly while FAI continues to contract
China publishes its key economic data for November on Monday. We expect industrial production and retail sales to edge up slightly from October’s growth levels to 5.1% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively. Yet, fixed asset investment will extend its contraction to -2.8% you, year-to-date. Absent any stimulus, the 70-city property prices are expected to extend recent declines. Property investment is likely to decelerate further. The rollout of stimulus has been limited in recent months as the 2025 growth target looks fairly secure. But we could get more support measures announced in the coming months with 2026 seen as an important year — the start of the new Five-Year period.
Taiwan: CBC expected to hold the interest rate
With little of note on the data front, the Central Bank of China’s quarterly monetary policy meeting is the key focus. Despite the Federal Reserve’s multiple cuts in recent months, we believe the CBC will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday. There’s little reason to cut rates given the upside surprise to growth so far this year and recent sensitivity to the stability of the TWD. This opinion is shared by markets, with a unanimous call for a hold from economists. Of particular importance: any hawkish or dovish tilt to its forward guidance.
Indonesia: BI expected to cut rates by 25bps
Bank Indonesia is likely to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday to boost growth. This comes amid a slightly softer inflation print in November and pressure on IDR from narrower rate differentials easing after the recent Fed cut.
Key events in Asia next week
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