Resume af teksten:
Bank of Korea (BoK) besluttede at holde renten stabil, mens muligheden for fremtidige rentenedsættelser stadig er åben. Makroøkonomiske forhold gør det dog usandsynligt, at BoK ændrer sin rentepolitik før slutningen af 2026. Med én dissenterende stemme afspejlede dagens møde, at BoK’s rentenedsættelsescyklus sandsynligvis er afsluttet, da opdaterede prognoser for BNP og inflation i Sydkorea reducerer sandsynligheden for yderligere lempelser. BoK justerede sin vejledning ved at fjerne udtrykket “opretholde rentenedskæringsholdenhed” og nævne “mulige rentenedskæringer.” BN-prognoser for 2026 og 2027 er opjusteret med forventninger om vækst drevet af chips og IT-cyklus. Inflation for 2026 blev revideret op til 2,1% på grund af KRW’s svaghed. Kredit- og boligpriser forbliver bekymringer, hvor stramme statslige kontroltiltag bremser, men ikke fjerner efterspørgslen.
Fra ING:
The Bank of Korea held steady today, leaving room for possible cuts going forward. But macro conditions will likely keep the BoK hibernation through the end of 2026
BoK policy rate
One dissent vote
Today’s meeting sent strong signals the BoK’s rate-cutting cycle has come to an end
The odds of further Bank of Korea easing seem low amid upgraded forecasts for South Korea’s GDP and inflation. Increased inflation concerns, risks linked to the weak KRW, and ongoing financial instability were all reflected in changes to the BoK’s forward guidance in the policy meeting statement.
In its forward guidance, the BoK removed the phrase “maintain rate cut stance” and instead added that it is “leaving room for potential rate cuts.” In our view, the BoK intends to convey that its easing cycle remains ongoing rather than concluded to mitigate the risk of abrupt movements in financial markets. Also, they appear to be closely monitoring any sudden change in market rates that may signal an impending rate hike.
Governor Rhee stated that it’s premature to consider a rate hike at this time, emphasising that changes in policy direction generally require a 12-month implementation period.
Additionally, today’s decision was not unanimous. There was one dissenting vote, the same as the last meeting. Opinions on a rate cut in the next three months remain divided, and support for easing has dropped from four to three. Yet the idea has not been abandoned.
Nevertheless, it is anticipated that changes in macroeconomic conditions will prompt the BoK to end its easing stance.
The BoK have revised up its GDP and CPI outlook
The BoK expects the economy to grow 1.8% year on year (vs 1.6% previously) in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Strong chips and the IT cycle will boost growth more than previously expected. Stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP is the main reason for the upward revision of 2025 GDP outlook to 1.0% (vs 0.9% previously).
In our view, the revision was rather moderate. We expect GDP to rise by 1.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 amid stronger-than-expected private consumption and exports. If upcoming data is solid, in line with our expectations, the BoK will revise up its outlook again next year.
CPI inflation for 2026 has been revised up from 1.9% to 2.1%, likely due to recent KRW weakness, which has driven higher-than-expected inflation. A 2.1% rate inflation isn’t a big deviation from the BoK’s target level, and thus shouldn’t be a major concern.
GDP/CPI outlook : ING vs BoK
Source: BoK and ING estimates
Concerns over household credit and high housing prices continued
Strict government controls on mortgages and home buying are gradually slowing the housing market, but underlying demand remains strong. The recent consumer sentiment survey showed that expectations for housing prices dropped but remain elevated. Thus, the BoK will have to monitor the housing market trends. We anticipate that the housing market will stabilise, at least in the short term, as the government considers implementing stricter measures. Nevertheless, this is unlikely to provide sufficient confidence for the BoK to lower the policy rate.
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