Resume af teksten:
I 2026 ventes økonomisk vækst at få et løft fra finanspolitisk stimulus, men spørgsmålet er, hvornår det vil ske. Seneste data indikerer en fortsat træg økonomi, selvom arbejdsløsheden ligger på et historisk lavt niveau. Forbrugerens tillid i eurozonen er lav, hvilket hæmmer stigningen i husholdningernes forbrug. Den økonomiske stemningsindikator faldt til 96,7 i december, hvilket afspejler beskeden vækst uden tegn på genopretning. Selv med en lille forbedring i industrisektoren og nye ordrer er der ingen tydelig investeringstilvækst. Tjenestesektoren oplever også lav efterspørgsel, hvilket påvirker forventningerne til BNP-vækst i fjerde kvartal. På trods af positiv reallønstigning er forbrugernes bekymringer om fremtiden stigende, især omkring arbejdsløshed, kun delvist opvejet af nuværende lav arbejdsløshed på 6,3%. Økonomien forventes langsomt at forbedre sig, støttet af stigende forbrug og investeringer.
Fra ING:
For 2026, the big question is when fiscal stimulus will start to boost economic growth. The latest data on sentiment still shows a lacklustre economy for the moment, though unemployment does remain around all-time lows
Low consumer confidence remains a barrier to increased household spending across the eurozone
The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the eurozone fell from 97.1 to 96.7 in December. Not a large move, but reflective of an economy showing modest growth without any meaningful signs of a pickup. Industrial sentiment improved somewhat, particularly as new orders came in a little better. Still, with the indicators for new orders and production expectations remaining lower than in October, this can hardly be called the start of an investment rebound. Weaker reported demand for services also supports muted fourth-quarter GDP growth expectations.
Consumers saw confidence decline in November despite more positive views on recent household finances. Concerns about the months ahead increased, including more worries about unemployment. That stands in contrast to today’s positive unemployment data (6.3% in November, down from 6.4% in October). The unemployment rate has hovered around current levels for some time, which is the lowest since the start of the data series.
For 2026, we expect growth to gradually pick up on the back of stronger consumer spending and investment. For the moment, low consumer confidence continues to be a barrier to increased household spending, although positive real wage growth does provide some consumption tailwinds. For investment, the big question is when fiscal stimulus promises will kick in.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
