Resume af teksten:
Finansminister Scott Bessent foreslår muligheden for en rentenedsættelse fra Fed, men robust forbrug og stigende inflation gør en sådan reduktion usandsynlig i september. Importpriserne steg i juli, hvilket tydeliggør belastningen på amerikanske virksomheder som følge af tariffer, hvilket modsiger administrationens påstande om, at udlandet vil betale. Dette kan føre til stigende detailpriser på sigt. Amerikanernes detailforbrug er op 0,5% i juli, men der ses blandede resultater på tværs af sektorer, og forbrugersentimentet er afdæmpet. Samtidig viser data ikke en umiddelbar økonomisk recessionstrussel. USAs industrielle produktion faldt i juli, uden tegn på, at sektoren drager fordel af øgede tariffer.
Fra ING:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had suggested that the Fed could and perhaps should cut rates 50bp at the next FOMC meeting. However, consumer spending is proving resilient and inflation pressures are a little more elevated with the bulk of the Federal Reserve reluctant to vote for an outsized move in September on the basis of a hunch
Non-store retail helped boost US retail sales in July
Import prices suggest US firms are bearing the burden of tariffs
Casting further doubt on the “foreigners will pay” claim from the Administration, July import prices rose 0.4% month-on-month while ex petroleum they were up 0.3% versus expectations of 0.1% MoM increases for both. Tempering the news is some downward revisions to June of 0.2 percentage points to both, to -0.1% and -0.2% respectively. Nonetheless, the data overall suggests that US importers are bearing the burden of tariffs so far and that at some point this will result in higher retail prices for goods.
Core inflation measures YoY%
Source: Macrobond, ING
That could change in time, but it will take time to negotiate any price cuts with foreign producers and there is likely to be some reluctance to acquiesce as they are already feeling pain from dollar weakness. US contracts are normally priced in dollars so unhedged foreign firms will be earning less in their local currencies.
Mixed news for retailers as sentiment remains subdued
Separately, retail sales rose 0.5% MoM versus the 0.6% consensus forecasts, but June’s growth rate was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6% initially reported. The details show autos rose 1.6% with furniture sales up 1.4% and non-store retail (boosted by Amazon Prime Day sales) up 0.8% with clothing up 0.7%. Electronics sales fell for a third consecutive month though (this time by 0.6%), building materials were down 1%, miscellaneous dropped 1.7% and eating, drinking out fell 0.4%. So it is a very mixed performance among the sectors.
Retail sales accounts for just over 40% of total consumer spending and here there has been an overall cooling, which is in line with weaker consumer sentiment readings. Concern about tariff-induced price hikes and worries about the prospect for the jobs market do appear to be causing a slowing in spending growth, but there is little sign of any recession threat right now.
Consumer confidence and real consumer spending (YoY%)
Source: Macrobond, ING
US manufacturing not benefiting from tariffs… yet…
US industrial production fell 0.1% MoM in July versus the 0% consensus, while June’s growth rate was revised up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Manufacturing output was flat on the month after a 0.3% increase in June. There is little sign of the sector benefiting from a switching to US-made products on the back of tariffs, but again, contracts take time to negotiate.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
