Resume af teksten:
Det forventede møde mellem Trump og Putin i Alaska kan påvirke Ukraine-konflikten, men det er usikkert, om det vil have en betydelig indvirkning på dollaren. I går oplevede vi en stigning i producentpriserne (PPI), hvilket har ført til en genvurdering af Fed’s forventninger. På valutamarkedet ser vi, at euroen og central- og østeuropæiske valutaer er påvirket af den amerikanske dollars styrke og geopolitiske udviklinger. Det tyrkiske centralbank har annonceret ændringer i deres monetære politik, hvilket ikke umiddelbart ændrer FX-markedet, men fremtidige rentenedsættelser kan påvirke TRY’s attraktivitet. Eurozonen holder også et vågent øje med mødet, da energi- og handelsforhold kan påvirke euroens langsigtede værdi. Økonomiske data fra USA, herunder detailsalgstal og industridata, vil i høj grad påvirke markederne fremadrettet.
Fra ING:
Today’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska could be a turning point for the Ukraine conflict. But that might not deliver the kind of seismic impact on the dollar that macroeconomic data has of late. After the PPI spike yesterday, there has been some hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, and the balance of risks for the dollar is now more balanced
USD: Data remains the biggest driver
The much-anticipated Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska is scheduled for 20.30 BST/21.30 CET, so any headlines may just be able to impact late US trading, but it’s quite possible that the bulk of the market reaction will only materialise on Monday. President Trump has defined this as a “feel-out” meeting and said there will likely be talks with European allies and Ukraine after this summit. This suggests that while we could see some draft plan for a ceasefire tonight, markets may treat it with some caution.
Trump has also said there is a “25%” chance nothing will be agreed today. That would be the most bullish scenario for the dollar, which could otherwise still come under a bit more pressure from geopolitical risk unwinding. Oil prices remain the key transmission channel to FX.
It is undeniably hard to predict the outcome of today’s summit. But for now, we have not seen a huge impact on the dollar, which we still think will remain primarily driven by the US macro story over geopolitical developments. Yesterday’s sharp rise in PPI (0.9% month-on-month on both headline and core) was a big surprise. PPI has a history of leading CPI, and many components feed into the Fed-preferred core PCE.
Markets are clinging to the September Federal Reserve cut, perhaps as that is seen as making up for July’s hold now that the jobs picture has changed so dramatically. But the December contract was repriced from -64bp to -57bp, and the two-year swap rate rose 5bp. There is a risk that this hawkish repricing has legs, which might offset the negative impact of any Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
On the data side, we’ll watch retail sales figures for July today, which are expected to maintain last month’s 0.6% pace, the Empire Manufacturing index and the University of Michigan economic and inflation surveys. Also on the calendar are TIC flows, which have rather spectacularly defied speculation of a run from Treasuries so far.
Francesco Pesole
EUR: Watching Alaska more closely
The Trump-Putin meeting and any better clarity on the path ahead in the Ukraine conflict have longer-lasting implications for the euro than for the dollar. How EUR/USD, EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY trade on Monday morning will be a good gauge of how markets have digested any headlines from Alaska. The deterioration in the eurozone’s terms of trade has impacted the long-term euro fair value, and some conviction that energy prices could come structurally lower from here could make markets more comfortable with the euro trading at levels inconsistent with a relatively unattractive implied rate – e.g. above 1.20.
But as discussed above, there is a chance that today might be the first step in the direction of de-escalation, and markets may tread carefully for now. The repricing in Fed cut expectations is hindering the chances of another major leg higher. The next US data releases will determine whether a return to 1.180 is feasible in the near future.
Francesco Pesole
CEE: Waiting for a signal from the US-Russia meeting
Central and Eastern Europe has remained relatively calm in recent days in the absence of local news and as it awaits the outcome of today’s US-Russia talks. Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected PPI data in the US and a stronger US dollar put some pressure on CEE FX, but it is clear that we cannot get too far ahead of today’s risk event.
The announcement of today’s meeting at the end of last week triggered a strong rally in the CEE region. The reason is obvious. Peace between Ukraine and Russia would bring more certainty to the region, potentially lower energy prices, especially for countries dependent on imports from Russia, such as Hungary, and a potential boost to the economy from the Ukraine Reconstruction project.
Given how CEE FX has moved, the market is already pricing in some probability of progress, which makes the risk event more complicated, especially for EUR/HUF, which remains close to 11-month lows. In EUR/PLN and EUR/CZK, the risk should be more symmetrical. Given the complicated estimate of today’s outcome, it can be assumed that the market will reduce its exposure to CEE, and given the already long positioning in the region, profit taking would not be surprising, which is our thinking here as well.
The outcome of the negotiations should come after CEE trading hours, so we will have to wait until Monday’s opening for the market reaction.
Frantisek Taborsky
TRY: Changes in monetary policy framework but no changes for FX
During a press conference yesterday to present its new inflation report, the Central Bank of Turkey announced several changes to its monetary policy framework. Expected inflation for the end of the year remains at 24%, and 16% for 2026, below our forecast (29.5% and 19.4%). The central bank will now announce an interim inflation target in its inflation reports, which is set at 24% and 16% for the end of this year, the same as the CBT’s inflation forecast. This may cause some market misinterpretation, but on the other hand, it should better indicate the central bank’s stance since it could differ in future.
Looking further ahead, the central bank sees upside inflation risks in food and service prices. Although further rate cuts are expected, the size of the rate cuts is less clear, and 300bp in July may not be the framework for the coming meetings. However, the latest inflation print was favourable, and there should be enough room for at least one more 300bp cut in September in our forecast. Later, however, we expect a slowdown to a 250bp pace, ending the year at 35%. The August inflation expectations figures today may tell us a little more.
For FX, however, the story here does not change much. Although CBT rate cuts should reduce the attractiveness of TRY carry trades, we are still in a safe zone for now, and at least this year, this should not be a problem. At the same time, it seems that the central bank has its FX policy fully under control and is not considering any changes here, at least in the short term. We believe that, at least through the summer months, USD/TRY will continue to grind gradually higher, while still offering a generous FX carry for long TRY positions, which remains our favourite currency play.
Frantisek Taborsky
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