En af de store nyheder i går blandt en dag med særdeles negative nyheder var den amerikanske udmelding om antiviral-midlet, remdesivir. Det er ikke en vaccine, men det er et middel, der måske kan hæmme corona-udviklingen. Det er afprøvet i Kina uden nogen større virkning, så der hersker stor usikkerhed om det, vurderer ING.

Uddrag fra ING:

Antiviral

President Trump’s “Operation Warp speed” goals are, however, admirable. He aims for the US to be in a position by next year not only to have found a vaccine but to be able to distribute large quantities of it to the population. That, and the coordinated nature of this programme, which will combine a great many trials under one umbrella, is helpful.

But once again, I think equity markets are getting ahead of themselves on a day when the run of news was actually pretty negative. Firstly, it is still worth bearing in mind that this virus may not lend itself to a vaccine. It is not a given. It’s not simply a question of how much money is spent or just a question of time. It may not be possible, or it may offer only very limited protection.

The other rather odd event yesterday was Dr Anthony Fauci going live with the positive results of a trial of the antiviral drug, Remdesivir before the trial had been peer-reviewed.

The previous trial in China published in the Lancet had shown no statistically significant benefit to the drug. So if the US trial provides a completely different outcome, it is interesting, but also possibly means that the benefits are somewhat marginal. Fauci talks of a 4-day improvement in recovery speeds. I’ll wait for the peer review before concluding if this is good science or not. Equity markets aren’t so picky.