ING’s cheføkonom, Carsten Brzeski, smider koldt vand i hovedet på de mange, der tror, at alt bliver normalt, når krigen i Europa er slut, og sanktionerne ophæves. Eftervirkningen af begge dele giver en nedtur, der er værre end pandemien, især i Europa, skriver han i en omfattende rapport. Prisen på olie og gas forbliver høj, også selv om Europa skærer halvdelen af gasimporten væk. Inflationen i Europa stiger, og sidst på året ventes ECB at begynde på rentestigninger. Politiske indgreb i finanspolitikken for at afdæmpe de negative virkninger af Ukraine-krigen kan ikke hindre en økonomisk nedtur. I USA vil renterne stiger uophørligt gennem hele året.
Executive summary
Europe is facing a humanitarian and economic crisis as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has spillover consequences for the rest of the world.
In this ING Monthly, Carsten Brzeski, ING’s Global Head of Macro, tells us that markets have got it wrong if they believe we’re returning to any sort of normality.
Lower growth and higher inflation are becoming dominant factors around the globe. We think the war could be worse than the Covid-19 pandemic for Europe.
We take a look at oil and gas and outline three scenarios for energy prices and the global economy.
And we dive into major countries and markets to examine what’s driving local economies and trends and try to predict where we’re headed next.
Our key calls this month
• Oil to average $103/bbl in the second quarter. We see a risk of a spike higher to
$150/bbl if the EU sanctions Russian oil.
• A best-case scenario could see Europe substitute 55% of Russian gas pipeline flows
this year, mostly via additional LNG cargoes.
• The US Federal Reserve is set to hike rates by 50 basis points (bp) in May, June and
July. Further 25bp hikes will take the funds rate to 3% by early-2023.
• The war in Ukraine could be worse than the pandemic for the Eurozone economy.
We expect a negative second-quarter growth reading for the region. Fiscal policy is
unlikely to be accommodative enough to prevent a marked slowdown.
• With eurozone inflation set to spike, we expect the ECB to stick to its plan of
removing exceptional policy measures. That means the end of net asset purchases in
the third quarter and a rate hike in the fourth.
• The UK economy will also experience a fall in GDP in the second quarter and that
means the Bank of England is likely to pause its rate hike cycle by summer.
• A rise in Covid-19 cases means the People’s Bank of China is likely to loosen policy via
a targeted cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio.
• The US 10-year will rise further to 2.75% in the second quarter. We expect EUR/USD
to move to 1.08-1.09 by the summer.
