Resume af teksten:
Italiens industriproduktion i oktober viser svaghed, hvilket dæmper forventningerne om en stærkere økonomisk vækst i årets sidste kvartal. Efter ustabilitet i august og september har de nyeste tal afsløret et større fald i den sæsonkorrigerede produktionsindeks, som faldt med 1% månedligt og 0,3% årligt. Faldet ses i forbrugsvarer, investeringsvarer og mellemprodukter, mens kun energi viser vækst. Transportudstyr og tekstiler er fortsat svage, mens farmaceutiske produkter og elektronik klarer sig godt. Svagheden i maskiner og udstyr antyder, at investeringerne endnu ikke er solide. Mens der er små forbedringer i ordrer og lagre ifølge november’s erhvervstillid, kan en betydelig produktionsstigning kræve implementeringen af Tysklands investeringsplan, forventet i anden halvdel af 2026. Italien forventes stadig at opleve positiv BNP-vækst, men sandsynligvis med servicesektoren som hoveddrivkraften.
Fra ING:
Italy’s industrial production data for October points to renewed weakness, tempering expectations of a stronger economic pickup in the final quarter of the year
Today’s data dampens hopes of a positive contribution from industry to fourth-quarter growth
After volatility in August and September, driven by summer shutdowns, October data was key to gauging underlying industrial momentum. Leading indicators suggested a mild contraction, but the official estimate shows a sharper decline in the seasonally adjusted index.
Istat reports a 1% monthly drop in the seasonally adjusted production index and a 0.3% annual decline (adjusted for working days). The monthly fall affects consumer goods (-1.8%), investment goods (-1%) and intermediate goods (-0.3%), while energy is the only segment posting growth (+0.7%).
Sector details offer few surprises: the year-to-date trend confirms marked weakness in transport equipment and textiles, while pharmaceuticals and electronics performed well. The modest decline in machinery and equipment suggests that the investment cycle hinted at in third quarter national accounts is not yet on solid ground.
Today’s data dampens hopes of a positive contribution from industry to fourth-quarter growth. Slight improvements in order books and a small drop in inventories, as shown by November’s business confidence survey, should support higher production in the coming months – but likely only gradually. A more decisive acceleration will probably require Germany’s ambitious investment plan to kick in, which is unlikely before the second half of 2026.
In short, today’s figures don’t change the overall picture: exiting stagnation remains a bumpy process. We still expect positive GDP growth for Italy in the final three months of the year, but the risk is higher that services will once again carry most of the weight.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
