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Den japanske økonomi voksede med 0,5% kvartal-over-kvartal, sæsonkorrigeret, i første kvartal af 2026, hvilket overgik markedsforventningen på 0,4%. Denne vækst reflekterer en periode før energichok ramte globalt. Privatforbrug og forretningsudgifter steg begge med 0,3%, og neteksport bidrog positivt til væksten. Prognoser for efterfølgende kvartaler viser forventet langsommere vækst på grund af vedvarende energishok.
Den japanske statsobligationsmarked (JGB) oplevede en svækkelse, der skyldes globale trends og landespecifikke faktorer som højere inflation og fiskale bekymringer. Regeringen overvejer nu en ekstraordinær budgetallokering for at håndtere stigende energipriser, hvilket kan øge trykket på JGB. Bank of Japan (BoJ) forventes at hæve renten for at tackle inflationsrisici, muligvis med en stigning på 25 basispoint i juni. Det samlede forventede renteløft for 2026 er på 50 basispoint med yderligere stigning i fjerde kvartal.
Fra ING:
The Japanese economy grew firmly in the first quarter, demonstrating its resilience of the economy amid global headwinds. Despite the recent bond market sell-off, the Bank of Japan is likely to prioritise inflation risks and deliver a 25 bp hike in June
1Q26 GDP
%QoQ sa
GDP growth beat the market consensus in first quarter
The Japanese economy grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted, in the first quarter (vs 0.4% market consensus, 0.3% ING). This data, of course, reflects a period before the full effects of global energy shocks. For now, it demonstrates the economy’s resilience and indicates its ability to endure higher interest rates. The previous quarter’s growth was revised from 0.3% to 0.2%.
Private consumption and business spending rose 0.3% each, signalling sustained domestic demand. The main upside surprise came from net exports, which added 0.3 ppt to overall growth, as the initial impact of the war was weaker than expected.
We expect slower growth this quarter and next, mostly due to prolonged energy shocks. Domestic demand is likely to grow, but at a slower pace, while inventory and net exports may drag down overall growth. Government subsidies and firm wage growth should support consumption. Investments are likely to soften amid rising input costs and heightened uncertainty. Even if the war ends or energy supplies improve by the end of the second quarter, stockpiling oil and gas should lead to an import surge, weighing on third-quarter growth. On this backdrop, we have trimmed down 2Q and 3Q GDP forecasts. Nonetheless, the annual GDP growth outlook for 2026 remains unchanged at 0.8% YoY, reflecting stronger 1Q26 results.
GDP rose more than expected in 1Q26, before the full war impact hurts growth
Source: CEIC, ING estimates
JGB sell-off indicates a range of challenges facing economy
The recent Japanese government bond (JGB) sell-off is clearly part of broader trends in global bond markets. However, the weakness has been more pronounced than in other major economies, as country-specific factors place additional pressure on JGBs. We identify three: higher inflation expectations, concerns about fiscal sustainability, and the Bank of Japan being behind the curve.
The big move in JGBs on Monday was mostly due to PM Takaichi’s sudden call for an extra budget. Until last week, the government insisted that additional funds were unnecessary. On Monday, at a meeting of the ruling coalition, Takaichi changed her position. She now admits that her government needs additional funding to respond to rising energy prices. Japan has used its energy emergency reserve fund to subsidise energy prices, keeping gasoline at around 170 yen per litre. But as of early May, the fund is nearly depleted and may last only another month. Energy supply disruptions have lasted longer than expected. The choice is to allow prices to fluctuate according to market conditions or allocate more funds to maintain control over inflation. It seems like the government decided to choose the latter option, hoping that energy prices will stabilise in a couple of months.
JGB 2Y10Y spreads widened recently
Source: CEIC
Fiscal spending will continue adding to pressures on JGBs
The government’s supplementary budget is mostly aimed at stabilising energy prices. It will fund emergency relief measures rather than provide economic stimulus. Thus, its multiplier effect on growth should be quite limited. The government probably needs to issue fresh debt bonds. No official estimate has been provided yet; market estimates range from 5 trillion to 10 trillion JPY.
It should also be noted that the government is expected to finalise its proposed temporary reduction in the food sales tax during the summer, as well as Takaichi’s initiative to increase defence spending. We continue to believe these developments will add upward pressure on JGB yields.
Bank of Japan watch
Although long-term JGB yields have recently climbed, the BoJ’s rate decisions should prioritise modifications to its accommodative monetary policy. Since the abolition of yield-curve control (YCC) a few years ago, the BoJ has made it clear that market rates are determined by market forces. We believe the BoJ can modify the pace of JGB purchases if needed, but will continue its normalisation process.
With real interest rates remaining deeply negative, strong growth indicating the economy’s resilience to higher borrowing costs, and healthy wage growth potential, it’s likely that the BoJ will deliver rate hikes. We expect rate hikes to anchor inflation expectations and help prevent further escalation. In addition, narrowing the yield gap between the Federal Reserve may support JPY in the mid-term, easing some inflationary pressures.
We maintain our BoJ rate-hike call, with a total of 50 bp hikes in 2026. We expect a June hike and another rate hike in the fourth quarter. The timing of the second hike depends on developments in the Middle East and on the BoJ’s ability to convince the government that higher rates are needed. However, we expect the BoJ to continue hiking rates throughout 2027.
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