Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

ING: Kinesiske bankers udlån er fadet dramatisk på grund af lockdown

Hugo Gaarden

mandag 16. maj 2022 kl. 10:11

Intet illusterer effekten af de barske kinesiske lockdowns mere end et dramatisk fald i bankernes udlån. I april blev udlånene kun 20 pct. af udlånene i marts, og det skyldes, at forbrugerne intet kan foretage sig udover at handle online, og at virksomheder stort set ikke kan producere i de ramte områder. Bankerne er samtidig blevet risikosky, vurderer ING, og det kan føre til, at asset management selskaber fremover kan få en større rolle. Det er uklart, hvordan centralbanken vil reagere for at skubbe økonomien igang.

Uddrag fra ING: 

China loan growth misses estimates

Lockdowns have created problems for banks in China as they have become more risk-averse. China’s central bank has promised to help but it lacks a solution. We believe that asset management companies play a role in boosting overall credit. But there is no perfect solution when the uncertainty of long lockdowns is high

Very weak loan growth

New yuan loans grew only CNY645.4bn in April after a CNY3130bn increase in March. The market consensus was CNY2200bn. April is typically a month of lower loan growth than March, but this April’s loan growth is just too weak. This matches the very soft growth in aggregate finance, which grew only CNY910.2bn in April compared to CNY4650bn in March.

Missed the mark

April’s overall credit in China was less than 20% of March’s

Banks can blame lockdowns

The main reason for such small credit growth is because of Covid lockdowns that have created difficulties for getting new loans. During lockdowns, there are many individuals and companies who suffer from loss of wages and loss of business, so therefore there should be an increase in demand for loans. If the supply of loans was steady, we should have seen a jump in new loans in April.

But that was not the case because banks in mainland China are more credit sensitive nowadays. During lockdowns, banks tend to be more risk-averse. They have been told to keep past due loans on their books. Under these circumstances, banks have become unwilling to create new loans, as that would mean taking on more risk by getting new loans and then waiting for them to become past due if lockdowns continue.

This is bad for the government as it would like to see banks giving a helping hand to the economy. But from a risk management perspective, banks are protecting their capital ratios, which isn’t a bad idea for the whole financial system in China.

PBoC is undecided: to cut or not to cut

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is struggling to decide on whether to lower interest rates by cutting the policy rate (Medium Lending Facility) and/or the required reserve ratio (RRR). There are mixed messages from the government and the central bank. It is difficult to decide because cutting interest rates is not a direct way to help an economy that has been damaged by lockdowns. Fiscal measures would be more effective, and there are quite a few of them for small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals.

There may be new tools from the PBoC, as it has promised, which will hopefully arrive soon.

We believe a way out is for banks to divest some loans to asset management companies, allowing banks more room to increase lending. But the asset management companies have to take the weak credit from banks. Then there is the issue of how much weak credit the asset management companies can hold without raising too much capital. There is no easy solution for easing monetary policy when the uncertainties of long lockdowns remain high.

Få dagens vigtigste
økonominyheder hver dag kl. 12

Bliv opdateret på aktiemarkedets bevægelser, skarpe indsigter
og nyeste tendenser fra Økonomisk Ugebrev – helt gratis.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev.  Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik. Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

SUN-AIR i Billund søger en kreditorbogholder
Region Syddanmark
Finansiel controller med stærk forretningsforståelse
Region Sjælland
Udløber snart
Financial Controller til HMF Group A/S
Region Midt
Udløber snart
Dansk Sygeplejeråd søger en regnskabskonsulent med digitalt mindset og med erfaring i regnskabsprocessen fra A-Z (barselsvikariat)
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank