ING har set på vækstraterne i en blok af lande, som omfatter Østeuropa, Mellemøsten og Afrika, og konstaterer, at denne gruppe har klaret sig forbavsende godt i sammenligning med Vesteuropa – med positive vækstrater. Det tegner godt for det nye år.
Directional Economics EMEA: Old habits die hard
Compared to Western Europe, the Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa bloc (CEEMEA) has performed admirably this year. In this report, we look at what the future holds for the next 12 months
As we enter December it is fair to say that the outlook for the next 12 months has improved dramatically. Clearly this optimism is contingent on both the vaccine roll-out and the Biden Administration meeting most of the high hopes placed upon it. But swift action by global policymakers has certainly played a role here, with the policy decisions of CEEMEA policymakers being no exception.
In fact, compared to Western Europe, the CEEMEA bloc has performed admirably this year. Who would have thought that Polish activity would contract by only 3.3% this year? Or Turkey would move in the opposite direction and grow by 1%? Limiting the downside has been some very aggressive fiscal responses across the region, including front-loaded schemes worth around 6.5% of GDP in Poland, 5.5% in Hungary and 5.4% in Romania.
Our macro team feels that the CEEMEA region is in a good position to recover next year – with growth forecasts ranging from 2.5-4.0%.
Our forecast 2021 recovery, 3-4% for CE4 members, is not wholly reliant on the EU Recovery Fund being passed. Yet the huge sums on offer are too large to be ignored.
Combined with the proposed EU 2021-27 budget and auxiliary funds, the CE4 stand to receive anywhere between 17% (Czech Republic) and 31% (Romania) of 2018 GDP over a seven-year funding window. Our base case sees Poland and Hungary resolving their differences with the EU by year-end – both standing to receive around 25% of 2018 GDP in 2021-27.
