Resume af teksten:
Revideringen af maj måneds løndata i Storbritannien samt højere end forventet inflationstal reducerer presset på Bank of England for at sænke renten hurtigt. Vi forventer rentenedsættelser i august og november. Tidligere data, som viste det største fald i lønnede medarbejdere siden 2014, blev justeret fra et fald på 109.000 til 25.000. Juni oplevede et fald på 41.000, men dette forventes også revideret. De seneste syv ud af otte måneder har vist fald i jobs, med en nedgang på næsten en procent siden oktober. Størstedelen af jobtabene stammer fra hotel- og detailsektorer, som er sårbare over for skatteforhøjelser. De aktuelle tal indikerer, at arbejdsmarkedet køler ned, men uden drastiske forværringer typiske for recessioner. Stigende lønpres er aftaget, hvilket Skulle give Bank of England komfort. Vi forventer yderligere rentenedsættelser næste år.
Fra ING:
A sizable upward revision to May’s payroll data, combined with yesterday’s hotter-than-expected inflation data, takes some of the pressure off the Bank of England to cut rates more quickly. We expect cuts in August and November
This data takes some pressure off the Bank of England to cut rates more quickly
Last month’s UK jobs data revealed that May saw the largest fall in payrolled employee numbers on record (well, since 2014, and not including the peak of the pandemic). This month’s data shows that this didn’t actually happen.
May’s 109k drop was revised up to a more modest 25k decline, which is more in keeping with the trend we’ve seen over the past six months or so. June saw a slightly sharper 41k fall, but presumably that will be revised up later too.
None of that is hugely surprising; we saw something similar with the March data too. And a sharp decline in worker numbers would be totally inconsistent with the official redundancy numbers we get each week from the government, which have shown no discernible increase over the past few months.
Private sector employment is falling – but not as quickly as first feared
Source: Macrobond, ING
That said, these payroll numbers – which are one of the few reliable ways of looking at the jobs market right now – have been falling for seven out of the past eight months. Employment is down by almost a percentage point since October, on this metric, with more than half of the net job losses coming from hospitality or wholesale/retail. These are labour-intensive, lower-paid sectors which were more vulnerable to April’s National Insurance increase.
The fact that these sectors are dominated by small businesses may explain why it’s not showing up in the redundancy data, given that firms aren’t required to file a notice to the government if they have fewer than 20 staff on site.
The bottom line is that the jobs market is undoubtedly cooling – and judging by comparable vacancy data from hiring agency Indeed, it is cooler than in other major economies. But equally, the latest data shows things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.
Wage pressures have eased this year
Source: Macrobond, ING
That suggests pressure on wage growth should continue to ease this year. Annual private sector pay growth has slowed to 4.9% from 6% at the turn of the year. The three-month annualised rate, a better gauge of recent momentum, is at 3.7% – a much more comfortable level for the Bank. That’s consistent with what the BoE’s own “Decision Maker Panel” survey has shown over recent months too.
For now though, the combination of less worrisome jobs data and hotter inflation figures yesterday , suggests the bar for the Bank of England accelerating cuts is still high. We expect cuts in August and November, and two further cuts next year.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
