”Supply risks in the oil market grew in August due to US secondary tariffs on India for its purchases of Russian crude oil. This development left plenty of uncertainty about what Indian refiners would do with their procurement of Russian oil. India has increased the volume of Russian oil it has bought since the Russia-Ukraine war, buying in the region of 1.6m b/d. Some Indian refiners paused their purchases of Russian oil following the US’s announcement of secondary tariffs on India, and ship tracking data confirms that volumes of Russian seaborne exports have dropped in recent weeks. However, more recently, we have seen Indian buying interest for Russian oil resume again. This is crucial for the market outlook. Obviously, if Indian refiners start to shun Russian oil, and Russia struggles to find alternative buyers, it would likely lead to a reduction in Russian oil supply, leaving the global market more undersupplied than anticipated.”
Morten W. Langer
