Erhvervstilliden i Italien forblev på et relativt højt niveau i november som følge af en lav smittespredning i sammenligning med resten af Europa. Italien ser nu effekten af en hård bekæmpelse af pandemien. Det er stort set kun i hotel- og restaurantbranchen, der ses en negativ tendens med aflysning af mange gæster i juleperioden. ING forudser en pæn vækst i indeværende kvartal og fastholder sin prognose for en vækst på 6,2 pct. for hele året. Det er en af de bedste vækstrater i Europa. Italien har lært af pandemien. Italien blev særdeles hårdt ramt af pandemien sidste forår.
Italian business confidence confirmed at high levels in November
Confidence still resilient, possibly helped by the timing of data collection
November sentiment data, released by Istat, clearly illustrates the sensitivity of confidence to the time of collection during the pandemic. In fact, in Italy, the acceleration of infections – still not explosive – only started towards the end of the survey period and the recent announcement of some more restrictive measures for non-vaccinated people also came after the cut-off time. We suspect that the picture will change when these new developments are factored into the December surveys.
Manufacturing holds up, notwithstanding supply bottlenecks
Still, sticking to the November numbers, the picture remains rather favourable. The aggregated business measure was stable on the month and very close to recent highs. Interestingly, notwithstanding persistent supply bottlenecks, confidence in the manufacturing sector set a new high, with gains among producers of consumer and intermediate goods and a soft decline among producers of capital goods. Filling order books are apparently driving confidence, fuelling expectations of higher production ahead despite clear indications that insufficient plants and materials remain the main obstacle to production.
Resilience in tourism will likely prove temporary
Confidence in the service sector declined slightly, mostly due to the drag from the information and communication component; rather surprisingly, confidence rose at a good pace in the tourism sector on the back of a sharp acceleration in expected orders. If very recent anecdotal evidence of the cancellation of Christmas bookings is confirmed (following a flare-up in the virus), we see room for a clear disappointment in the next survey.
Consumers still confident in employment developments
Consumer confidence took a breather in November, but remains very close to the September high. While showing increasing concerns about the future economic situation, consumers do not believe this means higher unemployment ahead – a belief possibly supported by recent labour market data, which has hardly been affected by the lifting of the redundancy ban. Again, the extent to which this resilience in confidence lasts depends on how long the current Covid wave lasts.
Even if the picture worsen in December, we still expect positive GDP growth in 4Q21
All in all, today’s confidence data provides comforting evidence for Italy’s economic performance over 4Q21. Even allowing for a possible deterioration in December, with the tourism sector possibly suffering from rising Covid cases even in the absence of widespread lockdowns, we believe that resilient manufacturing and still-solid consumption will keep quarterly GDP growth well clear of contraction territory. Our current 6.2% forecast for average 2021 GDP growth does not look at risk.
