Resume af teksten:
Sydkoreas seneste økonomiske stimulans har forbedret forbrugertilliden og vækstmomentum, men disse effekter kan være midlertidige. Bank of Korea forventes at holde renten uændret, da fokus er på boligpriser. Den Kompositoriske Forbrugertillidsindeks (CCSI) steg for femte måned i træk til 111.4 i august, med forbedringer i aktuelle levevilkår og indenlandske økonomiske forhold. Udsigterne for økonomiske forhold fortsatte dog med at falde. Mens inflationen og forventningerne til boligpriserne steg, kan fremtidig forbrug falde brat, når finanspolitiske stimuli tørrer ud. En indkomstbaseret uddeling er planlagt næste måned, men forbrugsvæksten kan miste energi i 2024.
Fra ING:
South Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus contributed to improved consumer sentiment and greater growth momentum. But these effects may prove temporary. Even so, the Bank of Korea will stand pat later this week, as it focuses more on housing prices
Source: istock
The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index
The CCSI rose for a fifth straight month in August
South Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) rose by 0.6 points to 111.4 in August, improving for a fifth straight month. Among the six sub-indices, improvements were seen in current living standards and domestic economic conditions, while the outlook for domestic economic conditions declined for a second month. The remaining three outlook components — living standards, household income, and spending — were unchanged.
The data showed that recent fiscal stimulus contributed to improved consumer sentiment and growth momentum. However, these effects may prove to be temporary. The second round of cash handouts – this time income-based – is scheduled for next month. But once these stimulus package funds dry up, there will be a sharp decline in spending, leading to a sudden drop in overall expenditures. We expect GDP to rise quite meaningfully in the second half of 2025, but then lose steam next year.
Consumer sentiment improved for fifth month in a row
Source: CEIC
BoK watch
Meanwhile, inflation expectations rose for a second month, and expectations for housing prices rose slightly in August. This raises questions for the Bank of Korea about whether the recent moderation in prices — including housing prices — will persist. We expect the Bank of Korea to extend its pause at this week’s meeting .
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