Resume af teksten:
Inflationen i USA overraskede ved at være lavere end forventet i november med en årlig hovedrente på 2,7 %. Dette har medført tvivl, især på grund af forskellen mellem de faktiske tal og analytikernes forventninger samt effekten af en regeringsnedlukning. Trods dette har den lave inflation givet Federal Reserve muligheden for tidligere rentenedsættelser i 2026. Hoved- og kerneinflation faldt mere end forudset, hvor husleje- og lønomkostninger ventes at presse inflationen mod målet på 2 % hurtigere end forventet. Fødevarepriserne faldt, og brugte bilpriser samt medicinske omkostninger så også mindre stigninger. Selvom energipriserne steg, er dette midlertidigt, da benzinpriserne nu er lavere. Lønninger forventes at bremse yderligere, hvilket skaber pres nedad på inflationen. Federal Reserve sigter mod rentenedsættelser i marts og juni med mulighed for flere, medmindre arbejdsmarkedet viser tegn på stabilisering.
Fra ING:
US CPI was surprisingly soft in November with an annual headline rate of just 2.7%. There is some scepticism due to the scale of the downside ‘miss’ relative to analyst expectations and the impact of the government shutdown, but it explains why Fed Chair Powell sounded so relaxed last week. This leaves the door wide open for earlier, swifter 2026 rate cuts
Headline and core inflation for November was much lower than expected, giving the Fed scope to cut rates in 2026
Annual core inflation (YoY%)
US inflation undershoots all forecasts in November
November’s consumer price inflation report was remarkably soft given the backdrop of tariffs and concerns over insurance costs. Remember we don’t get month-on-month data due to no survey being conducted in October because of the government shutdown, but we have year-on-year prints and for headline that came in at 2.7% versus 3% in September and a 3.1% consensus prediction, while core (ex food and energy) inflation was just 2.6% versus September’s 3% outcome and a consensus projection of 3%. That 2.6% outcome was 0.2pp below even the lowest forecast submitted to Bloomberg in their consensus survey.
We had assumed we would get something closer to 3.1% for core inflation, which would have implied MoM increases of 0.3% for October and November, but today’s outcome suggests prices rose 0.2% over the two-month period in total! In terms of the main components helping to depress the annual inflation rates, food price inflation slowed 0.5pp to 2.6%, led by a 0.8pp slowing in grocery to 1.9% YoY. Used vehicles slowed to 3.6% from 5.1%, which is a surprise based on auction prices. Both of the main housing components slowed by 0.4pp while medical care services slowed by 0.6pp to 3.3%. There was less of a drop in core goods (to 1.4% YoY from 1.5% YoY), but that is still a good outcome given tariffs. Energy prices did rise, but this is temporary given gasoline is now below $3/gallon nationally.
Some scepticism is justified
Now there is likely to be some scepticism of the numbers in this report, given how big a downside ‘miss’ this was for the analyst community and what the government shutdown meant for data collation. As such, there is likely to be a tendency to want to see what the December report contains before making major changes to forecasts. Nonetheless, this report underlines why Fed Chair Powell appeared so relaxed on the inflation front at last week’s Federal Reserve press conference. He suggests that the tariff impact will peak in the first quarter of 2026 and we agree. Thereafter, falling gasoline prices, slowing housing rents and weaker wage growth mean we are on track to get towards 2% inflation far faster than the Fed was forecasting last week.
Wage costs are set to slow further
Source: Macrobond, ING
Wages, rents and gasoline to push inflation closer to 2% earlier than the Fed expected
In a service-sector-led economy, such as the US, the biggest cost input is labour and, with there being more unemployed people in the US than there are job vacancies, this suggests wages will continue slowing. Moreover, the plunging quits rates – the lack of jobs out there and worker caution means people are sticking in their current role and in this environment there is no pressure on companies to offer bumper pay rises – points to wage growth slowing to just 2.5%. That’s well below rates seen as historically consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Our central view remains a rate cut in March and a second in June, but the risks seem skewed towards the Fed being able to deliver more unless the jobs market starts to stabilise.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.