“Markets have calmed, but don’t be mistaken; we are far from being back to normal. There’s a sense that the world is caught like a deer in the headlights, not sure what to do and terrified of what might be about to hit it. Prepare for more economic shocks: After the tariff blast in April, followed by market turmoil and even doubts about the Fed’s independence, the start of May has looked like the famous calm after the storm. Some might be tempted to think that the challenges to the global economy have mostly evaporated. I have my doubts. Let’s not forget that despite the back-and-forth on tariffs, the level of actually imposed tariffs is still significantly higher than at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine drags on, and uncertainty is still high, not least about the rule of law and stability of public institutions in the US.” Prepare for more economic shocksOil is a mitigating factorOur key calls at a glance.
Morten W. Langer
