Den førende tyske indikator, Ifo, viser, at den tyske økonomi har mistet styrke. Ifo-indekset faldt i juli for anden måned i træk og blev på 99,4 point. Det er dog stadig højt, det højeste niveau siden april 2019, men flere andre indikatorer peger på en opbremsning i andet kvartal. ING tror, det går fremad i tredje kvartal, men derefter er udsigten usikker. Det ser ud til, mener ING, at den fulde genopretning af økonomien vil blive udskudt.
German Ifo index signals economy’s loss of momentum
After the ZEW index and PMIs, the Ifo index is the latest leading indicator pointing to a loss of momentum for Germany in the second half of the year. If hard data follows the levelling off of soft indicators, the economy’s return to pre-crisis levels will be delayed
Germany’s leading indicator, Ifo, joins the choir of recently released leading indicators pointing to a loss of momentum in the German economy. The Ifo index dropped for the second month in a row in August and came in at 99.4. Remember though that, apart from the last two months, this is still the highest level since April 2019.
While the current assessment component improved to the highest level since June 2019, expectations saw their sharpest drop since the start of the pandemic. In short, improving current assessment and fading expectations still bode well for growth in the current third quarter but point to more difficult times thereafter.
