Resume af teksten:
Tyske industriproduktionsdata for juni skuffer, og nedjusteringer for maj indikerer, at industrien forbliver fastlåst fremfor at opleve et cyklisk opsving. Den tyske økonomi vil fremover være påvirket af handel, valutakurser og finanspolitiske stimuli. Aktuelle virksomheders resultater afslører, at amerikanske toldsatser og strukturelle overgange i økonomien allerede påvirkede præstationer i andet kvartal. Med indførelsen af 15% told på europæiske varer, som nu træder i kraft, forventes yderligere pres på økonomisk vækst, især da 10% af Tysklands eksport går til USA. Den stærkere euro gør det usandsynligt, at eksporten snart vil drive væksten, hvilket øger afhængigheden af indenlandske investeringer og innovation. Tyske mindre og mellemstore virksomheder kan blive særligt hårdt ramt af de amerikanske toldsatser.
Fra ING:
Disappointing industrial production data for June and a downward revision for May suggest that instead of staging a cyclical rebound German industry remains stuck.
Today’s industrial production data provides a cold shower for our long-held view of at least a cyclical rebound in German industry
Second-guessing the cyclical rebound
Industry remains stuck in long phase of bottoming out
Looking ahead, the path for the German economy and industry will be particularly affected by trade, the exchange rate, and fiscal stimulus. In the near term, recent corporate results were already a painful reminder that US tariffs, but also structural transitions, were already in full swing in the second quarter, weighing on company results. This is a trend that will hardly change in the third quarter, as the new US tariffs of 15% on most European goods will come into effect as of today. With 10% of total German exports going to the US, the new tariffs will clearly weigh on economic growth.
While financial markets seem to have grown numb to tariff announcements, let’s not forget that their adverse effects on economies will gradually unfold over time. The German Mittelstand could become a victim of US tariffs as these hidden champions will have more trouble relocating production than big corporates. Add to that the stronger euro exchange rate – not only against the US dollar, but many other currencies – and it looks highly unlikely that exports could soon again be a significant growth driver for the German economy, which puts all hopes on fiscal stimulus, corporate investments and innovation to bring back growth.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
