Resume af teksten:
Bank Indonesia ventes at fastholde styringsrenten på 5,75 % onsdag.
Der ventes dog fortsat én renteforhøjelse på 25 basispoint i fjerde kvartal.
Rupiah kan blive presset af bred dollarstyrke, svage eksterne balancer og faldende valutareserver.
Kinas låneprimærrenter ventes uændrede mandag, men en rentenedsættelse før årets udgang er fortsat mulig.
Taiwans eksportordrer og industriproduktion ventes at forblive stærke.
Singapores overordnede inflation og kerneinflation ventes at stige i august på årsbasis.
Højere oliepriser, fødevarepres og AI-relaterede investeringer kan understøtte inflationen i Singapore.
Fra ING:
China’s weak domestic demand continues to undermine growth
Why India and Philippines aren’t losing the AI battle – yet
We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% on Wednesday. This follows a dovish pause in August and recent IDR appreciation driven by foreign inflows. However, we believe the rupiah could come under renewed pressure amid broad USD strength, weak external balances, and declining FX reserves. As such, we continue to expect one final 25bp rate hike in the fourth quarter.
China updates its loan prime rates on Monday. No change is expected, with the People’s Bank of China having stood pat this month. Markets have pushed back expectations for a rate cut as policymakers opt for targeted measures such as interest rate subsidies, even as the rest of the world leans toward rate hikes. Conditions still support a rate cut before year-end amid slowing growth, low inflation, and weak credit activity. It’s increasingly possible, though, that the move could be pushed into next year if China remains on track to hit its 2026 growth target.
Taiwan releases data on export orders and industrial production. We expect export orders to stay strong at around 60.9% year-on-year amid solid demand for electronic and information and communication products. Industrial production is also expected to remain strong, rising to 29.4% YoY.
We expect Singapore’s headline and core inflation to accelerate in August on a year-on-year basis. Higher oil prices are likely to lift energy inflation, while El Niño-related supply disruptions should keep food price pressures elevated. Strong AI-related investment demand also could continue to support services inflation.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/articles/why-ai-matters-for-india-and-the-philippines/
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