Analyse fra Natixis:
Since the early 1990s, bond investors have benefited from the long-run decline in long-term interest rates that has generated high returns on bond portfolios and made bond investment attractive. But long-term interest rates are now very low. We can then have two scenarios. Either long-term interest rates remain low; the gradual normalisation of monetary policies (which will start in the United States and the United Kingdom) will lead to flat yield curves, encouraging savers to pull out of bonds and head into more liquid assets; • Or long-term interest rates rise again and bond investors keep their bond portfolios that have been built up with very low coupons, while interest rates have climbed, leading to capital losses and, for institutional investors, a risk that savers may withdraw their money. The future therefore seems difficult for bond investors in both cases.
