Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Formue

BNP Q4 på 0,2% > Tyskland undgår med nød og næppe recessionsstart

Morten W. Langer

torsdag 14. februar 2019 kl. 14:30

Fra Zerohedge:

Confirming previous leaks that despite a sharp economic slowdown across most of Europe, which has emerged as the “weakest link” for the global economy…

… Europe’s manufacturing and exporting powerhouse, Germany, just barely avoiding a technical recession after its economy stagnated in the 4th quarter following a 0.2% Q/Q drop in Q3, although lack of a trade war resolution will likely mean that any pickup in Europe’s powerhouse economy could be muted.

After posting its worst GDP print in years, Germany’s economy was bolstered by domestic demand in the fourth quarter, as investment into buildings and equipment rose markedly. Also, in delight to fiscal doves everywhere, government spending increased significantly from the previous quarter, while private consumption was up fractionally. However, with exports and imports rising at roughly the same pace, there was no contribution from net trade, which is a problem for an economy that relies greatly on trade to grow its economy.

Despite the carefully seasonally adjusted Q4 GDP print, which strategically prevented “Germany Enters Recession” headlines on the front pages of tomorrow’s newspaper, Germany’s Q4 performance meant Europe’s biggest economy trailed most of its euro area peers, where average growth was 0.2 percent. 2019 hasn’t brought much relief so far: disappointing numbers keep rolling in and a slew of institutions have downgraded their outlooks.

Worse, as we noted yesterday, whereas the likes of Greece were at the root of past European sluggishness, this time Germany’s prospects are crumbling after a protracted slump in manufacturing and a big hit to German auto production.

That said, analysts are hopefully that the Q3 drop was the trough, and economists forecast growth of 0.4% in Q1 as rebounding car orders and rising water levels signal some one-off growth inhibitors are dissipating. Still, the full-year outlook depends on whether stabilizing trade and Chinese growth can revive industrial momentum.

Confirmation of Germany’s economic stagnation comes one week after the European Commission issued sweeping downward revisions for Germany and many of the euro area’s major economies, which as Bloomberg notes, “faces a daunting combination of weaker demand for its exports from China and the rest of the world, the prospect of a messy divorce with the U.K., and protracted impact from political unrest in Italy and France.”

Meanwhile, according to Bank of America economists, the current slowdown may prove temporary but relies “on accidents not happening.” U.S. threats to hike car import tariffs would need to dissipate, the U.K. would have to leave the European Union with a deal, and the Chinese economy would need to stabilize.

Yet business concerns this time are more entrenched than they were during the last growth scare, and that alone could weigh on investment. A gauge for manufacturing is signaling contraction, the Economy Ministry predicts the weak phase in industry to continue and Daimler AG is preparing a “comprehensive” cost-cutting program.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom, with some cheer coming from the Netherlands, which reported 0.5% growth in the fourth quarter, an acceleration from 0.1% in the previous three months.

So with Germany literally on the edge of recession, eyes turn to Mario Draghi, although any hopes of further easing by the central bank which recently ended its sovereign debt QE will likely be dashed for the foreseeable future as the ECB has signaled it won’t rush in with additional stimulus, and are waiting to see how to economy evolves before deciding to raise interest rates.

Which is why Germany’s Q1 GDP may be fateful: another unexpected contraction will likely force the central bank to jump back into the easing pool, although what more the central bank can do to stimulate the economy – considering its QE was still intact when Europe careened into a near recession – remains unknown.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Nyt job
Rektor til Erhvervsakademi Dania
Region Midt
Administrerende direktør – Danske Advokater
Region Hovedstaden
Fondskonsulent til TEC’s Økonomi- og Ledelsessekretariat
Region Hovedstaden
Nyt job
Analytisk stærk økonomiprofil med interesse for grøn omstilling
Region Sjælland
Underviser i international Økonomi til Baltorp Business Gymnasium
Region Hovedstaden
Nyt job
Business Controller
Region Hovedstaden
Business Controller til Molslinjen
Region Mdt
Flair for økonomi og planlægning? Vi søger 2 nye kollegaer til budget- og økonomistyring
Region Hovedstaden
ESG-Controller til JP/Politikens Hus
Region Hovedstaden
Økonomipartner til Arktisk Kommando med tjenestested i Brabrand
Region Midt
Er du Midtsjællands stærkeste økonomiansvarlige?
Region Sjælland
Nyt job
Chief Financial Officer til Aabenraa Havn
Region Syddanmark
Nyt job
Koordinerende økonomikonsulent til økonomistyring på ældre-og sundhedsområdet i job og velfærdsstaben
Region Midt
Nyt job
Dygtige økonomer søges til De Økonomiske Råds sekretariat
Region Midt
Økonomi/administration
Region Midt
Fondsrådgiver til behandling af ansøgninger og projektopfølgning
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Formue

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank