Nordea har udarbejdet Commissioned Research af Netcompany – hele analysen kan læses her
Nordea skriver:
We estimate Netcompany grew its Q1 revenue by 15% y/y in Q1 2019
(consensus: 18%), due to a combination of unchanged strong momentum
and tougher comparisons. Unfortunately, Q1 consensus seems “inflated” by
one outlier that is 8% ahead of the remaining part of consensus on
revenue.
We estimate EBITA will jump by 25% y/y (DKK 150m) and the
EBITA margin by 0.5 pp, up to 25.2%. The key focus in the Q1 report,
besides the performance in the company’s three markets, will be on cash
flow, where we expect net working capital to normalise and include a
reduction of the high level of overdue receivables that hit Q4 2018. We
leave our estimates unchanged ahead of the Q1 2019 interim report.
The cash flow trend in 2018 raised some questions
The soft cash flow in 2018 prompted a growing list of questions about
underlying performance. Contract work in progress (WIP) more than
doubled y/y during 2018 – and reduced cash conversion has garnered
attention.
These could be early indicators of problem projects etc. We are
not alarmed by the trends, however, and we expect working capital to
improve in 2019 and we expect management will at least provide better
clarity on the underlying development.
2019 guidance: Likely reiterated
We expect Netcompany to reiterate its 2019 guidance, which was
announced in November 2018 with the Q3 2018 interim report.
Fair value of DKK 280-325 per share
Mainly due to changes among the peer group, we upgrade our fair value
range to DKK 280-325 (260-300). We still believe Netcompany should
trade at the higher end of its peer group, if not above, but we notice that it
is trading at a discount (P/E and EV/EBITDA)
