Fra Danske Bank – læs hele analysen her
Just as fears about a wider US-Iran conflict calmed down, market sentiment got ruffled by the so-called coronavirus outbreak in China (see Research China – Uncertainty on the rise on the back of corona virus, 27 January). The WHO officially labelled the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and measures to contain it were stepped up globally. More Chinese cities and provinces extended the holiday period until at least 10 February, raising fears in the market about the global economic repercussions of the virus through supply-chain disruptions and tourism declines.
While growth has been improving in China since Q3, the spread of the virus is opening up some downside risks for the nascent global recovery. Compared with the SARS outbreak in 2002-03, the Chinese economy is a much bigger driver of global growth today and we estimate the outbreak could reduce Chinese GDP by up to one percentage point in H1.
However, although the recovery could be somewhat delayed, we still look for V-shaped rebound in global growth in Q2 once the outbreak is under control (see Research – V-shape scenario for global growth on back of coronavirus, 3 February).
