Kommentar til aftenens nedjustering fra Danske Bank: Lavere end forventede handelsindtægter, samt mindre performance free i kapitalforvaltningsforretningen, bør ikke være den store overraskelse for markedet. Til gengæld er det klart positivt, at banken ikke nedjusterer indtjeningen i selve basisforretningen, hvilket indikerer at eventuel kundeflugt i kølvandet på hvidvaskskandalen fortsat er moderat. Ifølge analytikernes konsensus estimater var forventningen 16 mia. kr. i overskud efter skat i 2018, med samlet indtjening på handelsindtægter på godt fem mia. kr. Disse indtægter bliver nu nærmere fire mia. kr.
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Fra Danske Bank:
Danske Bank A/S revises outlook downwards – expects 2018 net profit of around DKK 15 billion
Company Announcement No. 67/2018
The outlook for 2018 is revised downwards to a net profit of around DKK 15 billion. We previously expected net profit for 2018 to be in the range of DKK 16-17 billion.
The revision is made in view of the challenging conditions on the financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2018, which have an adverse effect on net trading income on the rates markets as well as on performance fees. In addition, our Non-core unit is adversely affected by a DKK 0.2 billion value adjustment. The outlook for all other financial statement items, including net interest income, is unchanged.
“The revision to the outlook is mainly the result of worsening conditions during the fourth quarter in the financial markets compared to the first nine months of 2018. The underlying business performance is still good. Deposits remain at a stable level, and we are seeing growth in lending, especially in Norway and Sweden, driven partly by our partnership agreements. In Denmark, the developments in the core activities are stable,” says CFO Christian Baltzer.
The outlook remains subject to uncertainty.
Danske Bank presents its annual report for 2018 on 1 February 2019.
Her er analytikernes konsensus estimater, jvf. Danske Bank IR side:
| Consensus – 2018 (DKK m) | Low | Median | Average | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 23,425 | 23,544 | 23,550 | 23,668 |
| Net fee income | 15,051 | 15,642 | 15,590 | 15,886 |
| Net trading income | 4,457 | 5,028 | 5,038 | 5,673 |
| Other income | 883 | 999 | 1,035 | 1,592 |
| Total income | 44,524 | 45,181 | 45,213 | 45,720 |
| Total expenses | 25,174 | 24,889 | 24,871 | 24,582 |
| Profit before loan impairment charges | 19,868 | 20,383 | 20,342 | 20,759 |
| Loan impairment charges | -239 | -508 | -534 | -790 |
| Profit before tax, core | 20,154 | 20,969 | 20,876 | 21,264 |
| Profit before tax, Non-core | -40 | 10 | 15 | 96 |
| Profit before tax | 20,202 | 20,988 | 20,891 | 21,254 |
| Tax | 5,002 | 4,950 | 4,875 | 4,469 |
| Net profit for the period | 15,660 | 16,043 | 16,017 | 16,275 |
| Attributable to additional tier 1, etc. | 817 | 787 | 788 | 780 |
| Earnings per share (DKK) | 16.1 | 17.8 | 17.7 | 18.7 |
| Dividend per share (DKK) | 0.0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| Share buyback (DKK bn) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| REA (DKK bn) | 738 | 744 | 746 | 762 |
| CET1 ratio (reported), % | 16.3 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.9 |
Based on 17 estimates
