While the S&P is now trading several points above the Goldman 2015 year end target of 2100 (and about 95 points away from the FDIC-backed hedge fund’s 2016 year end target of 2200), it is not just Goldman which sees no upside from here. As the table below shows, when the S&P was at 2088 few days ago, Deutsche Bank forecast 1% upside left until the end of the year. Which means that all else equal, absent a miraculous surge in corporate earnings by the end of the year or some inexplicable reason to push S&P multiples even higher (the GAAP P/Es is now 20x), the S&P which is now trading at 2105 has precisely 0% upsideleft based on non-GAAP PE “fair value” of 17.6x.
From DB:
Our sector fair value estimates are based upon the same intrinsic valuation model which we use for the overall S&P 500. It shows the most upside at Health Care, Utilities, Telecom and Tech – four of the sectors we overweight. Tech upside would be 13% if 5.25% real cost of equity was used, or 19% at 5.00% real CoE. This implies fair value sensitivity per 25bps real CoE change is ~5%.
More importantly, those chasing every dip in energy may want to read this: “We raised the growth premium at Energy to 0% from -5% as we see a milder than 20% downside for the sector through 2015 year-end. A 0% growth premium implies 16% downside from here and 19.1 fair value PE at 2015 year-end.”
And in table format:
