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A brief guide to Election Day Bricklin Dwyer and Andy Schneider An ‘October surprise’ in the form of a letter to Congress from FBI Director James Comey dominated the last news cycle and helped tighten the polls. Mr Trump’s chances have roughly doubled in the last week, to about 35% based on FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model.
In 2012 the Associated Press called the election at 23:38. In this issue, update the state of the race, answer how the election is actually called, and detail when polls close and when we will likely know the election’s outcome.
Election update – the race tightens near the end Just one week ago it appeared Hillary Clinton was coasting to victory. She maintained an 85% chance of victory in FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model and a 5.4pp margin in RealClearPolitics national polling average (both as of 25 October).
On Friday 31 October Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director James Comey sent a three-paragraph letter to Congress saying that new e-mails had surfaced in an unrelated case that “appear to be pertinent to the investigation” of whether Mrs Clinton and aides mishandled classified information.
Although Mr Comey said the FBI could not yet assess whether the material would be significant or how long it would take the additional work, the release became the dominant news cycle for the weekend. Mrs Clinton has appeared vulnerable to the e-mail issue; during the FBI’s investigation she saw her poll numbers sag.
Although Mr Trump’s numbers were beginning to rebound prior to Mr Comey’s letter, several polls released since have indicated Mr Trump received an additional push. On Sunday 7 November Mr Comey told lawmakers that after reviewing the new e-mails, the agency had not changed its prior conclusion that it would recommend no charges against Mrs Clinton related to her handling of classified information.
What’s the actual process for calling the election? The Associated Press (AP) positions thousands of workers throughout the country in election centers. When the first polls close, the AP begins to report the raw vote as it evolves.
The AP also receives, along with the five major television networks, the results of exit poll interviews conducted by Edison Research (the sole exit pollster). Combined with information on demographics, early and absentee voting, and other factors, staff appraise the vote totals and make the decision when they see fit to “call” the state in favor of one candidate. The Washington bureau chief, who heads the “decision desk” in Washington, has the final signoff on all presidential state calls. When will we know the results? While many outcomes are possible, Mr Trump needs to win a number of east coast states to keep his hopes alive.
Mr Trump’s path to victory is difficult without winning each of Florida (where polls close at 19:00), North Carolina (19:30), and Ohio (19:30). Other key states to watch and their respective poll closing times are: Virginia (19:00), New Hampshire (20:00), Pennsylvania (20:00), Michigan (20:00) Wisconsin (21:00), Colorado (21:00), Arizona (21:00), and Nevada (22:00). The timing of the outcome will depend on the evolution of who wins these key early states. In 2012 the AP called the election at 23:38.
