on November 19, Goldman released its list of top trades for 2016, #1 of which was the infamous long USDJPY, short EURUSD equial-weighted basket which has led to massive losses for anyone who had put it on. At the current rate of carry trade unwinds, we expect that trade will be closed out shortly, and may have been overnight when the USDJPY plunged to the lowest since the ETFlash crash.
But while we wait, here is a reminder what the #6 top trade for 2016 was:
Top Trade #6: Long large-cap US Banks relative to the overall S&P500
Go long large-cap US Banks through the BKX Index relative to the S&P500, indexed at inception to 100, with a target at 110 and stop loss at 95.
US banks tend to be mildly pro-cyclical and also benefit from a rising longer-dated yield environment (we forecast a steeper US term structure than the forwards discount), as the Fed tightening will lead to a progressive upward revision of expectations on terminal rates, while the ECB and BoJ’s efforts to boost inflation should restore bond premium across major markets. US banks are still relatively well-priced, trading just above book value and with a P/E below that of the overall market, and at about median levels compared with its own past history. Moreover, they remain off their recent highs, unlike other possible implementations of the domestic growth theme in the US stock market.
We bring it up because overnight, just 11 days into 2016, Goldman was stopped out of this “top trade” following a 5.4% loss on these “relatively well-priced, trading just above book value” assets.
Close long large cap US banks through the BKX Index relative to the S&P500 on 11 Jan 2016, opened on 19 November 2015 at 100, with a potential loss of 5.4%.
Which reminds us of what we said back on November 16 after laying out Goldman’s “top trades”:
… something tells us the best trades for 2016 will be to go short the Yuan, go short Oil, and short TSYs, while doing the opposite of the Top 6 trade recos.
As of this moment, less than 2 weeks into 2016, we could just close all these “anti recos” out and call it a 2016 up well in the double digits for the year.
