FED: Very dovish statement despite de facto improvement in data – Very confusing – this could be net negative as FED ‘clearly’ sees issues the market dont…
Now Fed is @ 2 hikes vs. markets 1.5 which is closest gap this cycle…
FOMC 2nd update:
This is somewhat “consistent” with global policy co-ordination…..but I suspect this will make market go down. Fed confidence in not only the economy but also their own ability to project and communicate the expected path is free of any integrity.
The data WAS better – much better than December, likewise was inflation, but still FED came out with weak, weak outlook. Either they know something we dont – very unlikely, or a weaker US Dollar is again the main policy tool.
This is in my opinion the CONFIRMION of the incoming WEAK US Dollar policy, which not only is FED product but now condoned by ECB and BOJ (through their backing down from negative yield)
Outlook:
Weaker US dollar
Risk assets should have hard time as this is not instilling confidence in future path.
