Commissioned research fra Nordea:
Revenue guidance upgrade on the cards
We expect Netcompany to deliver a Q3 report supporting its growth
ambitions, and we expect it to raise its 2018 revenue guidance, which
currently looks too conservative to us. On reporting day, we expect the
market to focus on possible project wins, the Q3 margin and whether
Netcompany was able to add more employees (which is necessary if the
company is to meet its growth targets). We continue to derive a fair value
range of DKK 245-285 per share from a combination of our DCF model and
peer group valuation, while recognising that peers have seen multiple
contraction since our last report on 9 October.
Implicit H2 2018 guidance looks puzzling
Netcompany’s implicit H2 2018 guidance reflects a revenue decline of ~4%
h/h, despite its solid growth profile and its costs decreasing by ~6% h/h
even though the company is focused on adding more employees. Our 2018
revenue estimate of DKK 2.06bn (vs guidance of DKK 1.94-2.01bn) reflects
2% revenue growth in H2 2018 vs H1 2018. While we do not foresee a
change to the wording of its EBITA margin guidance, we think there is a
small likelihood of stronger PTP guidance than its current DKK 213-282m
range, although our estimate is just inside in the high-end of the range (our
estimate: DKK 280m; company-collected consensus: DKK 256m).
