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Pandora dykkede kraftigt efter UKchefskifte og Kinanote fra Topholm

Morten W. Langer

torsdag 28. juni 2018 kl. 14:04

På tre dage er Pandora aktien dykket otte procent, og aktiekommentatorer har undret sig over, hvad der lå bag kursfaldet. Aktien har faktisk ligget nogenlunde stabilt siden slutningen af maj, og det har – i hvert fald officielt – ikke være afgørende nyheder ude, lyder vurderingen.

Men det er faktisk forkert: I går kom to nyheder, som vedrørete PANDORA. For det første blev det kendt, at Pandoras øverste chef for den store engelske forretning fratræder, for at gå på pension. Branchemediet Professional Jeweller afslørede i går, at topchef gennem 18 måneder i UK, Brien Winther, fratræder sig stilling. Årsagen angives at være familiemæssige forhold:

”Pandora UK is preparing for its second leadership change in less than 18 months after it was confirmed today that Brien Winther is leaving the business. He will be replaced by Kate Walsh, Pandora’s managing director for Northern Europe. Mr Winther only joined the brand’s UK operations at the start of last year, so the timing of his departure will undoubtedly come as a surprise to many of its retail partners.”

Tilsyneladende har en talsperson fra Pandora bekræftet chefskiftet. Der har tidligere været forlydender om, at Pandora har store problemer med salget på det engelske marked, som er koncernens tredje største. Chefskiftet kan have påvirket kursen, som dog første startede det store fald sidst på eftermiddagen.

Fagmediet skriver videre, at ”A Pandora spokesperson confirmed to Professional Jeweller this morning that Mr Winther, who flew over from Australia to become Pandora UK’s managing director in January 2017, had decided to retire and would hand over the reins to Mrs Walsh. The exact date of transition has not been confirmed, but Professional Jeweller understands that Pandora is targeting a timeframe of mid-September.

“Winther, who previously worked as the president of Pandora in Australia & New Zealand, hails from a strong retail background in his home market. In an exclusive interview with Professional Jeweller earlier this year, he admitted it had been a “challenging” 12 months from a revenue perspective and outlined his and the company’s plans to drive business. In the 18 months Winther has held the role, the company has started to move away from its franchise-led model, and has bought back a bevvy of its franchise stores,” skriver Professional Jewellery.

Pandora har ikke udsendt børsmeddelelse om chefskiftet, som af markedet altså vurderes at have stor kurspåvirkende effekt.

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Med til at sætte aktien ned sidst på dagen er med stor sikkerhed også en update fra Carnegies Lars Topholm, som sidst på dagen udsendte en note.

Konklusionen lyder:

We have a SELL rating on Pandora, target DKK400 as we fear the company may have to lower FY(18e) revenue guidance later this year – rating, target price and estimates remain unchanged.

I noten oplyses blandt andet:

Pandora (Sell): China issues probably not solved yet as better Tmall growth may be driven by promotions and cannibalization on physical stores

  • Tmall momentum apparently strong for June and Q2 but the comp might be easy: Our analysis of Pandora’s revenue generated on Tmall indicates a pick-up in Y/Y growth momentum in Q2(18) compared to the previous quarter, but also a reduction in the average selling price (ASP) suggesting that the improved Tmall momentum may happen at the expense of sales through the physical stores, as Pandora has had several promotion campaigns of which some were only available on-line. Based on data up to and including 26 June, Q2(18) Tmall revenue (based on our data) increased 109% Y/y with monthly growth rates of 39% in April; 77% in May; and 208% in June. While this looks impressive, it is worth to note that the comparable quarter last year looks as an easy comp.
  • If the on-line share of revenue is unchanged from Q1, China growth will improve to 38% in Q2(18): 38% Y/y growth for Pandora in China is based on Tmall revenue (our data) of CNY81m for the quarter to date and assuming Tmall represents 15.5% of Pandora’s total Chinese revenue as was the case in Q1(18). However, this may be a too optimistic conclusion as we believe high promotional activity on Tmall may have cannibalized on the physical store network in China, and we thus believe there is a risk that the Tmall-share of revenue increases which would mean total Chinese revenue will have grown less.

 

 

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